Comments on: Using misleading crime stats to make readers frightened of foreigners http://www.mailwatch.co.uk/2009/08/31/using-misleading-crime-stats-to-make-readers-frightened-of-foreigners/ Watching the Daily Mail Thu, 19 Jan 2012 21:38:45 +0000 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.8 hourly 1 By: 5cc http://www.mailwatch.co.uk/2009/08/31/using-misleading-crime-stats-to-make-readers-frightened-of-foreigners/comment-page-1/#comment-239141 5cc Fri, 11 Feb 2011 11:32:05 +0000 http://www.mailwatch.co.uk/?p=3935#comment-239141 Also, just noticed this: "Immigrants don’t constitute more than about 2/10 of the population but commit 1/5 of all crimes in less than six months (meaning they commit about 2/5 of all crimes in a year)" It doesn't mean that at all. You've doubled the number of crimes committed by migrants (the figures the papers used don't accurately show that by the way) without doubling the total number of crimes committed. You'd end up with 2/10 crimes - or the same number you started with - if you tried to extraoplate a year's worth of crimes from six months. Also, just noticed this:

“Immigrants don’t constitute more than about 2/10 of the population but commit 1/5 of all crimes in less than six months (meaning they commit about 2/5 of all crimes in a year)”

It doesn’t mean that at all. You’ve doubled the number of crimes committed by migrants (the figures the papers used don’t accurately show that by the way) without doubling the total number of crimes committed. You’d end up with 2/10 crimes – or the same number you started with – if you tried to extraoplate a year’s worth of crimes from six months.

]]> By: 5cc http://www.mailwatch.co.uk/2009/08/31/using-misleading-crime-stats-to-make-readers-frightened-of-foreigners/comment-page-1/#comment-239139 5cc Fri, 11 Feb 2011 11:29:07 +0000 http://www.mailwatch.co.uk/?p=3935#comment-239139 Hi Ben, Odd to see a reply on an eighteen month old post. The original piece is about a particular tactic the tabloids use to come to the conclusion that immigrants commit a shocking amount of crime in the UK. It's a dishonest tactic because it's based on incomplete information and includes one stat that distorts the overall picture. I have no idea where you got your stats from here. Do you have a link? The reason the papers' information is incomplete is because the data you claim to have was never published at that point. "Immigrants don’t constitute more than about 2/10 of the population but commit 1/5 of all crimes in less than six months (meaning they commit about 2/5 of all crimes in a year)." You've misunderstood the original piece here. The paper <em>claimed</em> that immigrants committed 1 in 5 murders in six months, but the numbers they used didn't properly support that conclusion. If you have other stats that show immigrants commit 1 in 5 crimes I'd like to see them. "Thus immigrants can be said to be respondible for nearly all crimes in the UK as their volume is overwhelming for their smaller population." No. They really, really can't. There is no way you can get from "Immigrants commit 1 in 5 crimes in the UK" to "immigrants can be said to be responsible for nearly all crimes in the UK". You just can't. No matter how you adjust for percentages, 1 in five will never mean nearly all. The best you can do is argue that immigrants commit a disproportionate amount of crime compared to the number present in the population. This is not the same thing. Hi Ben,

Odd to see a reply on an eighteen month old post.

The original piece is about a particular tactic the tabloids use to come to the conclusion that immigrants commit a shocking amount of crime in the UK. It’s a dishonest tactic because it’s based on incomplete information and includes one stat that distorts the overall picture.

I have no idea where you got your stats from here. Do you have a link? The reason the papers’ information is incomplete is because the data you claim to have was never published at that point.

“Immigrants don’t constitute more than about 2/10 of the population but commit 1/5 of all crimes in less than six months (meaning they commit about 2/5 of all crimes in a year).”

You’ve misunderstood the original piece here. The paper claimed that immigrants committed 1 in 5 murders in six months, but the numbers they used didn’t properly support that conclusion. If you have other stats that show immigrants commit 1 in 5 crimes I’d like to see them.

“Thus immigrants can be said to be respondible for nearly all crimes in the UK as their volume is overwhelming for their smaller population.”

No. They really, really can’t. There is no way you can get from “Immigrants commit 1 in 5 crimes in the UK” to “immigrants can be said to be responsible for nearly all crimes in the UK”. You just can’t. No matter how you adjust for percentages, 1 in five will never mean nearly all.

The best you can do is argue that immigrants commit a disproportionate amount of crime compared to the number present in the population. This is not the same thing.

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