Didn’t the Express or the Mail run pretty much the same ’sickness bug’ story a few months back? And quoted some figure they just made up on the spot like they’re doing now.
Surely, if you count the entire working population of the UK – sorry that should be “hard working families” shouldn’t it – then, there are going to be “thousands” off sick with any number of similar things, at any time. and not just when the Excess needs a(nother) non-story for the front page. …
If Tory support slackens does that mean she’ll lose the bairn? Because if not I fail to see the relationship.
Whoever started this whole SamCam thing should be hung out at some crossroads for the crows to feast on, as a warning to others, and such dickery should be left to Just 17 and Jackie.
When’s Mrs C getting a blue rinse? I’m sure that would help Express readers identify with her better. At the moment she could easily be mistaken for a New Labour single mum, what with being pregnant and eveything.
Thank God it’s a threat from a sick bug we face. Much better fighting off sick bugs than lively, healthy ones.
Seriously though, ‘toll’? Don’t go suggesting that in some way a bit of a seasonal sniffle is in some way the precursor to a plague not out of place in a Stephen King book.
The Express has recently switched to new Indian pollsters “Opinium” (the irony!).
Why you ask? As their polling methods (bad) tend to give the tories a 3% greater lead than other UK companies.
Most pollsters actually “weight” results (opposition parties tend to get too generous a poll, compared to what they eventually get, because people basically get cold feet about changing parties come voting day), to take account of various things, to get an accurate figure.
As an example, Howards Tories were actually leading Blairs Labour in “unweighted” polls in 2005 by 2% on the day before the election. They lost by 7%.
Showing you how it works both ways, Labour were leading the tories by 23% on unweighted polls in 1997. They ended up winning by 16%.
Opinium do none of the complexed weighting that bigger companies do, and hence their polls are in general not respected, or accepted as being that accurate.
Trust me. A 10% lead with opinium, is probably closer to about 5% max.
The tories poll lead is very dodgy, because of the above phenomena. Nearly all polls, weighted or not, are at least 2-3% too generous to oppositions.
If the tories go into an election, leading by 6-7% (the consensus), that could well end up turning out as a 2% lead, and them losing.
Honestly. A pollster of mine thinks that they would need a 13% poll lead to even guarantee a majority.
For them to even win, they will want to go in with a conensus polling of 8% plus. Anything below that, they could well lose.
Hence “Mad Georges Crazy Easter Mad Tax Giveaway Bonanza!”
Most of the main pollsters have the Tories up at 7% from a low of 5% a week or so back. This is entirely due to the budget and it’s probably been helped by the (negative) coverage from most media outlets.
Judge the polls in a week or so time and the lead with probably be more stable, for the Tories to only get a boost of 2% (margin of error) is a little worrying I would say for them.
They still do lead the marginal polls but yeah as Jake says several pollsters such as Angus Reid and Opimum give the Tories a bigger lead due to the weighting.
I think the best thing to do is take a average total of the last 10 from different pollsters and you probably have your lead which sad as I am, I did it a few days ago and it was 6%
Oh no, a sick bug. Only one thing we can do; immediately double all taxes we pay and reroute the excess direct to the NHS, which I’m sure is the undertone of the Express article.
I think the secret is in the “could”, whihc in expressland means “That’s about as big as I reckon the punters can count”.
Disagree with NJH. The undertone is actually “The incoming Tories will prescribe common sense, and after that there will only be health bugs and friendly bacteria”.
Didn’t the Express or the Mail run pretty much the same ’sickness bug’ story a few months back? And quoted some figure they just made up on the spot like they’re doing now.
It ‘could’ run to a million, but it won’t, just like all the other health scare stories.
How many months pregnant is she supposed to be?
Tory support grows – based on the opinion poll question:
“has Tory support grown since the Tory election defeat in 1997″?
Surely, if you count the entire working population of the UK – sorry that should be “hard working families” shouldn’t it – then, there are going to be “thousands” off sick with any number of similar things, at any time. and not just when the Excess needs a(nother) non-story for the front page. …
That picture isn’t Heather Mills. It’s clearly Daniel Craig, wearing a bit of slap.
If Tory support slackens does that mean she’ll lose the bairn? Because if not I fail to see the relationship.
Whoever started this whole SamCam thing should be hung out at some crossroads for the crows to feast on, as a warning to others, and such dickery should be left to Just 17 and Jackie.
When’s Mrs C getting a blue rinse? I’m sure that would help Express readers identify with her better. At the moment she could easily be mistaken for a New Labour single mum, what with being pregnant and eveything.
Stevie H – Flippin’ ‘eck, you’re right. It is Daniel Craig. Now that is seriously spooky.
Thank God it’s a threat from a sick bug we face. Much better fighting off sick bugs than lively, healthy ones.
Seriously though, ‘toll’? Don’t go suggesting that in some way a bit of a seasonal sniffle is in some way the precursor to a plague not out of place in a Stephen King book.
Tory Support Grows
The Express has recently switched to new Indian pollsters “Opinium” (the irony!).
Why you ask? As their polling methods (bad) tend to give the tories a 3% greater lead than other UK companies.
Most pollsters actually “weight” results (opposition parties tend to get too generous a poll, compared to what they eventually get, because people basically get cold feet about changing parties come voting day), to take account of various things, to get an accurate figure.
As an example, Howards Tories were actually leading Blairs Labour in “unweighted” polls in 2005 by 2% on the day before the election. They lost by 7%.
Showing you how it works both ways, Labour were leading the tories by 23% on unweighted polls in 1997. They ended up winning by 16%.
Opinium do none of the complexed weighting that bigger companies do, and hence their polls are in general not respected, or accepted as being that accurate.
Trust me. A 10% lead with opinium, is probably closer to about 5% max.
The tories poll lead is very dodgy, because of the above phenomena. Nearly all polls, weighted or not, are at least 2-3% too generous to oppositions.
If the tories go into an election, leading by 6-7% (the consensus), that could well end up turning out as a 2% lead, and them losing.
Honestly. A pollster of mine thinks that they would need a 13% poll lead to even guarantee a majority.
For them to even win, they will want to go in with a conensus polling of 8% plus. Anything below that, they could well lose.
Hence “Mad Georges Crazy Easter Mad Tax Giveaway Bonanza!”
Most of the main pollsters have the Tories up at 7% from a low of 5% a week or so back. This is entirely due to the budget and it’s probably been helped by the (negative) coverage from most media outlets.
Judge the polls in a week or so time and the lead with probably be more stable, for the Tories to only get a boost of 2% (margin of error) is a little worrying I would say for them.
They still do lead the marginal polls but yeah as Jake says several pollsters such as Angus Reid and Opimum give the Tories a bigger lead due to the weighting.
I think the best thing to do is take a average total of the last 10 from different pollsters and you probably have your lead which sad as I am, I did it a few days ago and it was 6%
Oh no, a sick bug. Only one thing we can do; immediately double all taxes we pay and reroute the excess direct to the NHS, which I’m sure is the undertone of the Express article.
I think the secret is in the “could”, whihc in expressland means “That’s about as big as I reckon the punters can count”.
Disagree with NJH. The undertone is actually “The incoming Tories will prescribe common sense, and after that there will only be health bugs and friendly bacteria”.
Once again: redundant headline. Also which bug? Flu? Cold? West Nile Virus? Chickenpox? Ebola? Do we get to choose our own sick bug?