Gallup has now finished its first six full weeks of tracking surveys for the 2012 presidential campaign, interviewing 20,565 registered voters. Yes, you guessed it: President Obama and Mitt Romney are tied, 46 percent to 46 percent. The margin of error for a sample of this size is just under seven-tenths of a percentage point; Gallup, though, modestly reports it at +/- 1 percent, for the sake of simplicity. One benefit of a poll this size is that it allows you to look at demographic subgroups of voters without worrying about big margins of error. So when you get a chance to look at "supersized" data, grab it.http://www.theatlantic.com/politics/arc ... ta/257988/
Each day at 1 p.m., Gallup.com reports the three-day moving average for Obama's job-approval rating. At the same time, it also reports the seven-day moving average for the presidential-election trial heat between Obama and Romney, the presumptive Republican nominee, by averaging more than 3,000 interviews a week. Each Monday afternoon, the Princeton, N.J.-based granddaddy of polling firms reports detailed demographic breakdowns for the combined most recent three weeks of interviewing. This week, Gallup released six full weeks of results. The first half of these were interviews between April 11 and May 6; the second half were from May 7 through May 27. (It's a good thing that I am not addicted to this stuff.)
The gender splits were almost perfectly symmetrical in the two batches. Among women, Obama led Romney by 7 points, 49 percent to 42 percent, in the first three weeks, and by 8 points, 50 percent to 42 percent, in the second. Among men, Romney had an 8-point lead, 50 percent to 42 percent, in both the front and back halves of the six weeks of interviewing. If you recall, in 2008, the exit polls showed that Obama edged Sen. John McCain by 1 point among men, 49 percent to 48 percent. Among women, he beat McCain by a whopping 13 points, 56 percent to 43 percent. Among white males, Romney had leads of 27 points in the first three weeks (59 percent to 32 percent), and 25 points in the second (59 percent to 34 percent). Among white females, though, the Romney advantage was considerably narrower: a 9-point lead, 50 percent to 41 percent, in each half.