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 Post subject: Re: POTUS 2012
PostPosted: Sat Feb 25, 2012 10:35 am 
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I've seen BB King twice. Hammersmith Odeon - wonderful. 'Live at The Regal' is one of the best albums ever. So there.

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 Post subject: Re: POTUS 2012
PostPosted: Sat Feb 25, 2012 6:20 pm 
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yumicho wrote:
Primaries aren't really all that democratic. They are like an even more convoluted version of the Electoral College.




Especially the bits from 3:27 onwards. Before the early 20th century, the parties chose the candidates themselves. Since political parties are private entities, they sort of still have a lot of power in choosing the presidential candidates. There is an illusion of democracy, but we end up with a lot of power held by farmers in Iowa and the conservative (for the northeast) voters from New Hampshire. And then there's the power the parties and groups trying to influence the vote have. If there were still more than one person vying for the candidacy and the Christian Coalition, a group which has made an effort to be overrepresented in these electors, wanted to vote against the will of the people, they could provided those delegates came from states where that was allowed. And then the super-delegates could cast their votes.

But all of the people running in the Republican primaries are nuts. That's what you get when you pander to the craziest people in America. Sometimes you end up with someone who is too crazy to get elected when put in front of rational people. But the way the system and the whole process leading up to the actual vote is, there is a chance if Santorum manages to secure the nomination, he still could get in. Most of America wouldn't want him, but they'd be powerless to change it.


The biggest problem I have with the primary system is that they basically become a pissing contest to see who can throw the most money at them rather than a battle of principles or ideas - so it's hardly a surprise that David Miliband is supposedly so keen on bringing the idea over here. Romney might be struggling in the polls at the moment, but his astronomical spending has already blitzed Gingrich out of the race and presumably Santorum is next. I can't understand why Gingrich is still clinging on, really. By all accounts he despises Romney, but his continued presence in the race is impeding Santorum more than anyone.

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 Post subject: Re: POTUS 2012
PostPosted: Tue Feb 28, 2012 7:11 pm 
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Quote:
Asked by the AP reporter if he follows NASCAR, Romney responded, "Not as closely as some of the most ardent fans. But I have some great friends who are NASCAR team owners."


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 Post subject: Re: POTUS 2012
PostPosted: Wed Feb 29, 2012 12:07 am 
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Bizarrely, Herman Cain has just appeared on Newsnight, being interviewed by Paxman.

Paxo: "So, Mr Cain, why couldn't you cut it?"

Cain: "Au contraire, Jeremy..."

WTF?

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 Post subject: Re: POTUS 2012
PostPosted: Wed Feb 29, 2012 10:23 am 
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Abernathy wrote:
Bizarrely, Herman Cain has just appeared on Newsnight, being interviewed by Paxman.

Paxo: "So, Mr Cain, why couldn't you cut it?"

Cain: "Au contraire, Jeremy..."

WTF?


Another French speaker - no wonder he failed.


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 Post subject: Re: POTUS 2012
PostPosted: Wed Feb 29, 2012 10:49 am 
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I hope it's as long and drawn out as possible - the longer it goes on, the more they have to discredit each other, the more dirt will be dug, the more scope there is for gaffes and the more bored of them the voting public will get. And unlike Obama/Clinton, at the end of it it'll still be a religious white guy so there's not even the intrigue of a potential black/female presidential candidate.

Santorum is showing signs of being proper batshit mental, so as he and Romney get ever more desperate for Fox News endorsement/the Tea Party vote I expect them to say ever more stupid stuff. Stuff that a lot of people in their own party won't like and stuff a lot of the general population definitely won't like. Which is all good for Obama.

http://www.religiondispatches.org/archi ... _education


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 Post subject: Re: POTUS 2012
PostPosted: Wed Feb 29, 2012 2:52 pm 
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crabcakes_windermere wrote:
Santorum is showing signs of being proper batshit mental, so as he and Romney get ever more desperate for Fox News endorsement/the Tea Party vote I expect them to say ever more stupid stuff. Stuff that a lot of people in their own party won't like and stuff a lot of the general population definitely won't like. Which is all good for Obama.

http://www.religiondispatches.org/archi ... _education


This is the GOP's big problem, not just now but also in the future. Despite the constant red-baiting, Obama's on the centre-right of the political spectrum (at least in global terms) - precisely where, in previous years, you would have expected a moderate Republican to be. This has left them with nowhere to go except pandering to a band of far-right lunatics, pushing them further and further towards the cliff's edge. Centrist types have drifted towards the Democrats, leaving the Republicans lumbered with a shower of dogmatic ultra-conservative ideologues.

If Romney loses the GE (which, barring a renewed economic downturn, he probably will), the response from the GOP base will inevitably be "we weren't right-wing enough" and off they'll go again. They need to avoid falling into that trap if they're to avoid spending a generation in the wilderness.

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 Post subject: Re: POTUS 2012
PostPosted: Wed Feb 29, 2012 3:54 pm 
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new puritan wrote:
They need to avoid falling into that trap if they're to avoid spending a generation in the wilderness.


Personally, I'd be fucking delighted if they fell right into the trap and made themselves as unelectable as possible.


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 Post subject: Re: POTUS 2012
PostPosted: Wed Feb 29, 2012 3:58 pm 
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new puritan wrote:
crabcakes_windermere wrote:
Santorum is showing signs of being proper batshit mental, so as he and Romney get ever more desperate for Fox News endorsement/the Tea Party vote I expect them to say ever more stupid stuff. Stuff that a lot of people in their own party won't like and stuff a lot of the general population definitely won't like. Which is all good for Obama.

http://www.religiondispatches.org/archi ... _education


This is the GOP's big problem, not just now but also in the future. Despite the constant red-baiting, Obama's on the centre-right of the political spectrum (at least in global terms) - precisely where, in previous years, you would have expected a moderate Republican to be. This has left them with nowhere to go except pandering to a band of far-right lunatics, pushing them further and further towards the cliff's edge. Centrist types have drifted towards the Democrats, leaving the Republicans lumbered with a shower of dogmatic ultra-conservative ideologues.

If Romney loses the GE (which, barring a renewed economic downturn, he probably will), the response from the GOP base will inevitably be "we weren't right-wing enough" and off they'll go again. They need to avoid falling into that trap if they're to avoid spending a generation in the wilderness.


The republicans are facing the same issues that the Tories had facing New Labour - and we're seeing the same drift to the right that we saw under Howard.


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 Post subject: Re: POTUS 2012
PostPosted: Wed Feb 29, 2012 3:59 pm 
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crabcakes_windermere wrote:
new puritan wrote:
They need to avoid falling into that trap if they're to avoid spending a generation in the wilderness.


Personally, I'd be fucking delighted if they fell right into the trap and made themselves as unelectable as possible.


So would I - not that I have too much affection for the Dems either - but it still baffles me as to how the GOP have managed to box themselves in like this. I mean, their solution to everything is to be even more loopy than they were already. It doesn't take a rocket scientist to work out that this isn't a viable long-term political strategy, even in the States.

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 Post subject: Re: POTUS 2012
PostPosted: Wed Feb 29, 2012 4:14 pm 
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Get a little bit on the side - you're not fit to be President.
Be a homophobic bullshitter with a chip on your shoulder, a massive ego and a hefty does of zealotism - you're fit to be President.

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 Post subject: Re: POTUS 2012
PostPosted: Wed Feb 29, 2012 6:05 pm 
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crabcakes_windermere wrote:
Personally, I'd be fucking delighted if they fell right into the trap and made themselves as unelectable as possible.

That's what they said about Reagan.

American presidential politics is personality-based. If someone's charismatic enough — and their opponent is not — they can win. Voters also get exhausted with the agenda of the incumbent. Since the war, every two-term president except Reagan has been replaced by a candidate from the rival party. In 2016, that candidate could be Sarah Palin — or worse.


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 Post subject: Re: POTUS 2012
PostPosted: Wed Feb 29, 2012 6:17 pm 
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ezinra wrote:
crabcakes_windermere wrote:
Personally, I'd be fucking delighted if they fell right into the trap and made themselves as unelectable as possible.

That's what they said about Reagan.

American presidential politics is personality-based. If someone's charismatic enough — and their opponent is not — they can win. Voters also get exhausted with the agenda of the incumbent. Since the war, every two-term president except Reagan has been replaced by a candidate from the rival party. In 2016, that candidate could be Sarah Palin — or worse.


I don't see it. Palin's only concern is coining it in from Fox News and the like for as long as possible, she doesn't have any serious political ambition. If I had to put money on it I'd say the two frontrunners for the Republican nomination in 2016 are most likely to be Chris Christie (right-wing, but not a Tea Party fruitcake) and Marco Rubio (could help the GOP reach out to the Latino vote). But seriously trying to predict what the Republican base will do is a fool's game, obviously.

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 Post subject: Re: POTUS 2012
PostPosted: Wed Feb 29, 2012 7:09 pm 
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I thought they were putting the smart money on another Bush....

The question is who will the Democrats go for in 2016, Biden will be 74 so. Christie is favourite to be Romney's running mate so if he is chosen then.


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 Post subject: Re: POTUS 2012
PostPosted: Thu Mar 01, 2012 1:15 pm 
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Clinton. She'll only be 67/68 and the US still seem to generally accept older candidates more readily than the UK does.

EDIT: she says she's not interested in running again, but I bet she could be persuaded.

OR - total left-field entry. Al Gore.


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