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 Post subject: Re: 2015 General Election
PostPosted: Wed Aug 22, 2012 1:16 am 
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daveinbrum wrote:
Bones McCoy wrote:
Andy McDandy wrote:
Um, so how would that (proportional assignment based on GE results) work with 15 year terms, or am I being thick?


You could do it with 3 rolling sittings of lords.
I'll need a bit more than the back of a fag-packet to figure out how you'd get it started though.


I presume it would just take three elections to get up to the full quota of elected Lords, with the appointees/hereditaries being phased out at the same rate. I'm all for a reformed Lords being elected differently to the Commons, but 15 year terms do seem an odd choice, and not really sure why the Lib Dems went for it in the first place.

Re the Commons, boundaries are reviewed from time to time anyway, so I assume Labour will have to look at this at some point, but they can probably safely kick it into the long grass until after the next election. They can safely oppose the review for now by saying that when they look at it, they will take account of geography as well as population (I hope so anyway).


Yes the phasing out bit sounds about right (without getting a headahe staring at Gantt charts).
The other rather obvious point (as I see it) is that the elected life of a second house member should probably not be either a multiple or a factor of that of the first house.
So 5:15 is a bad option as there'll be a "super election" every 15 years.


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 Post subject: Re: 2015 General Election
PostPosted: Wed Aug 22, 2012 1:21 am 
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I'm wondering what will happen after UKIP post a couple of polls above the LibDems.

Could they enjoy a bounce to welcome them as the new 3rd party.
(You can be sure they'll get plenty of publicity - whether they use it wisely is a different matter).

If so, who will be the net losers?
A defection as chunks of Tory right voters break away.
Or a greater re-alignment as the Libdems crash from 8% to 3% and their social and economic wings rush to the security of big parties.


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 Post subject: Re: 2015 General Election
PostPosted: Wed Aug 22, 2012 8:40 am 
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Malcolm Armsteen wrote:
Why? You seem to be suggesting giving any bunch of nutters a go just for the sake of it.
Haven't the Lib Dems proved to you that, whatever their shortcomings, you are better off with a Labour government?

If the left don't like Ed Miliband then they get off their arses (unlike when Blair was elected leader) and work within the party to shape it in the way they want.

Trouble was, when they did that the voters didn't like it and we got Margaret Thatcher and John Major.


In fairness, Kinnock was installed by the right of the Labour party (even if he's significantly further to the left than Blair). He didn't lose in '87 and '92 for being too left-wing, but more because people just didn't see him as credible PM material. He was certainly a very capable speaker in his day though, when he wasn't falling into the sea in full view of the cameras.

I gave some thought to joining Labour and the LRC before I eventually opted for the Greens, but having seen the intense levels of cronyism and half-arsed 'opposition' to austerity of my own local Labour party, I couldn't bring myself to do it. Besides, having a vibrant party/parties to the left of Labour seems to me to be important if there's going to be any chance of dragging them away from the neoliberal consensus.

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 Post subject: Re: 2015 General Election
PostPosted: Wed Aug 22, 2012 2:23 pm 
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I see that just about half of Liberal Democrat members want shot of Clegg PDQ :

http://www.libdemvoice.org/libdemvoice-poll-members-nick-clegg-leader-2015-election-29903.html

To be replaced with who?

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 Post subject: Re: 2015 General Election
PostPosted: Wed Aug 22, 2012 2:23 pm 
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Whom.

Sorry.


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 Post subject: Re: 2015 General Election
PostPosted: Wed Aug 22, 2012 2:27 pm 
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Quite alright, dear boy.We pedants welcome corrections.

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 Post subject: Re: 2015 General Election
PostPosted: Wed Aug 22, 2012 7:05 pm 
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Bones McCoy wrote:
Yes the phasing out bit sounds about right (without getting a headahe staring at Gantt charts).
The other rather obvious point (as I see it) is that the elected life of a second house member should probably not be either a multiple or a factor of that of the first house.
So 5:15 is a bad option as there'll be a "super election" every 15 years.


Well, I think it would be the same each election as the phasing will remain in place (i.e. a third being elected each time so everyone serves 15 year terms). However, where that will go wrong is if a government in the Commons falls early (bound to happen at some point) so the terms get out of alignment. And what if there's more than one election within a five-year period - which one is counted then? And what happens if a Lords member dies/resigns and a by-election is needed (would the parties just appoint someone?)?

As I say, an odd choice by the Lib Dems which made it easy for Labour to oppose the plans while still claiming support for Lords reform in principle.


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 Post subject: Re: 2015 General Election
PostPosted: Wed Aug 22, 2012 7:21 pm 
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Erm, isn't it a bit redundant discussing Lords reform now it definitely ain't happening?

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 Post subject: Re: 2015 General Election
PostPosted: Wed Aug 22, 2012 7:59 pm 
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Probably. But I hope it does happen in future, just in a less half-baked way...


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 Post subject: Re: 2015 General Election
PostPosted: Wed Aug 22, 2012 9:08 pm 
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Abernathy wrote:
Erm, isn't it a bit redundant discussing Lords reform now it definitely ain't happening?


The Mail has its Winterval, surely we're allowed out fantasies too.


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 Post subject: Re: 2015 General Election
PostPosted: Wed Aug 22, 2012 10:03 pm 
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Abernathy wrote:
I see that just about half of Liberal Democrat members want shot of Clegg PDQ :

http://www.libdemvoice.org/libdemvoice-poll-members-nick-clegg-leader-2015-election-29903.html

To be replaced with who?

The only two I can think of is Charles Kennedy (if he's interested again) or Vince Cable.

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 Post subject: Re: 2015 General Election
PostPosted: Thu Aug 23, 2012 1:32 am 
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spoonman wrote:
Abernathy wrote:
I see that just about half of Liberal Democrat members want shot of Clegg PDQ :

http://www.libdemvoice.org/libdemvoice-poll-members-nick-clegg-leader-2015-election-29903.html

To be replaced with who?

The only two I can think of is Charles Kennedy (if he's interested again) or Vince Cable.


Tim Farron? Those of the left still in the Liberal Democrats hope for the return of Charlie but they admit it's a forlorn one, Farron would probably step in as interim if the Lib Dem wipeout happens.


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 Post subject: Re: 2015 General Election
PostPosted: Thu Aug 23, 2012 4:36 am 
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I suppose the lib-dems may in fact just reform as a right-of-centre party, a sort of Tory-Lite for those who feel a bit guilty over how the conservatives have shagged this country, but still don't want labour in power. Although one could posit that their credibility as a left-wing party is shot - at least they have a track record of being right wing whilst in power.


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 Post subject: Re: 2015 General Election
PostPosted: Thu Aug 23, 2012 12:16 pm 
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Reports that Osborne is to relinquish his role in masterminding the Tories' election campaign and that Shiny Dave has instead hired the Aussie strategist Lynton Crosby are not good enough for Mad Nad on Twitter :

Quote:
Nadine Dorries MP ‏@NadineDorriesMP

I do not believe for one single moment that George Osborne will hand over running of 2015 GE to full control of Lynton Crosby.


So, that's good news there, then !

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 Post subject: Re: 2015 General Election
PostPosted: Thu Aug 23, 2012 6:00 pm 
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Asil Nadir has been sent down for a 10 stretch in chokey for stealing about £29 million.

Asil Nadir's company, Polly Peck (of which Nadir was at the time CEO) donated nearly £500,000 to the Tories.

At the time, the Tory Chair at the time, Norman Fowler, pledged that any stolen money donated by Polly Peck would be returned. This was affirmed by John Major, then Tory leader and PM.

Fast forward to 2012, and Shiny Dave says that none of Asil Nadir's donations will be returned.


Another nail........

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