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 Post subject: Re: 2015 General Election
PostPosted: Sun Mar 11, 2012 3:25 pm 
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JuanTwoThree wrote:
Healthy dialectic is made by oppositions that oppose, not hand-wringing centrists who wonder why we can't all get along. Spain has got a right-wing government and a left-wing opposition, until the last election it was the other way round. You've had Blair saying he was an admirer of Thatcher, and Cameron saying he was a bit Blairite, for fuck's sake. Spain is every bit as screwed as anywhere else, or more so, but at least there's a bit of ideological clear water between the two options, it's not occupied by some ramshackle party of bleating sheep half of whom want to run one way and half the other.

I don't think there's anything wrong with general agreement between parties per-say, it depends where on the spectrum they are reaching that agreement. From 1945 to 1979 there was broad consensus on many of the bigger idealogical issues of the day, I'm thinking particularly in areas of social reform eg the Welfare State and human rights issues. It seems to me the mark of a grown-up approach to politics to agree with your opponent when they are talking sense, rather than opposition for opposition's sake.

The problem we have now is that, since 1979, we have increasing consensus on the Right with the Liberals and Labour trying to out-cunt the Tories.

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Last edited by oboogie on Sun Mar 11, 2012 8:26 pm, edited 2 times in total.

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 Post subject: Re: 2015 General Election
PostPosted: Sun Mar 11, 2012 3:34 pm 
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I'm not sure about the number of parties, but I think that Clegg might be achieving Blair's Third Way, a realignment of the liberal left around a new Labour caucus - I'm just not sure how long that will take, and the relationship will be less favourable to the social liberals. Certainly the neo-liberal entrists will find themselves happier in the Tories, especially after today.


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 Post subject: Re: 2015 General Election
PostPosted: Sun Mar 11, 2012 7:43 pm 
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Apparently the boy Campbell asked a Lib Dem on Five Live about whether there was "clear yellow water" between the Libs and the Tories. Eew.

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 Post subject: Re: 2015 General Election
PostPosted: Sun Mar 11, 2012 8:31 pm 
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JuanTwoThree wrote:
Healthy dialectic is made by oppositions that oppose, not hand-wringing centrists who wonder why we can't all get along. Spain has got a right-wing government and a left-wing opposition, until the last election it was the other way round. You've had Blair saying he was an admirer of Thatcher, and Cameron saying he was a bit Blairite, for fuck's sake. Spain is every bit as screwed as anywhere else, or more so, but at least there's a bit of ideological clear water between the two options, it's not occupied by some ramshackle party of bleating sheep half of whom want to run one way and half the other. Just make your minds up which side of the divide you're on and let the Lib Dems wither away. The UK isn't meant to have three main parties.


Absolutely - triangulation is perhaps the biggest problem with British politics as it stands. Cameron is pretty much a straightforward Blairite, and Gove is another who's an open admirer of St Tony (which goes to show how far to the right he took Labour). It might not have been enough to get him a majority in 2010, but Cameron has been fairly successful in parking his tank on the New Labour lawn, so to speak. That's just one of the reasons why I don't think running into the arms of David Miliband would be the solution to all Labour's woes. Events are moving quickly and I don't think the Blairites in the Labour party quite grasp the depth of the slump we're currently in, nor its long-term implications.

Malcolm Armsteen wrote:
I'm not sure about the number of parties, but I think that Clegg might be achieving Blair's Third Way, a realignment of the liberal left around a new Labour caucus - I'm just not sure how long that will take, and the relationship will be less favourable to the social liberals. Certainly the neo-liberal entrists will find themselves happier in the Tories, especially after today.


There was a Tribune article around the time of the last election speculating that certain figures on the Labour right (headed by Mandelson and Adonis, natch) were plotting to form a permanent pact with the Lib Dems under Clegg, freezing out what remains of the Labour left in the process.

http://think-left.org/2012/01/17/is-the ... he-tories/

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 Post subject: Re: 2015 General Election
PostPosted: Sun Mar 11, 2012 10:55 pm 
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There's nothing wrong with a party towing a centre-line, the problem in Westminster is that it is pretty much dominated by 2.5 party politics where they are all "big tents" that span quite a bit of the political spectrum. The leaders of these three parties all try to gravitate towards the centre because it knows that is where the bulk of the votes is to be won. The problem with this is that voters are becoming unsure on what exactly they're voting for because whoever gets elected is whipped into the party line which becomes arbitrary bridged by whatever faction in the party tries to gain the upper hand at the expense of the view and conscience the representative may have, and do this too often and they'll get thrown out of the party whip. Spain's left-right politics at national level has the offset of significant power devolved into the autonomous communities and cities, something the UK doesn't have across the board, so the impacts of a significant change of government at national level doesn't have as big an effect.

Such 2.x party politics also doesn't have to be confrontational - in Germany you have the CDU/CSU and the SPD as the two main opponents against each other yet they have quite a lot in common in terms of economic and social outlook but there have been a couple of times since WWII where the two parties have formed a grand coalition. Unless it was solely the BNP holding the balance of power in the House of Commons, I cannot see the Conservatives and Labour considering such an option themselves in a hung parliament.

You can then also have a situation where in a strongly two-party system the outcomes can prove to be disturbing where if one party becomes so dominant it can ride roughshot over others - a recent case being in Hungary where the ruling rightist Fidez party has so many seats it has been able to change the constitution at will. Of course that doesn't apply in the UK, but it shows in some cases where such dominance can hinder future executives by ensuring that major changes are made in the short term to implement party policy at the expense of long-term planning.

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 Post subject: Re: 2015 General Election
PostPosted: Mon Mar 19, 2012 4:32 pm 
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The NHS topic made me think, and thinking made me worried.

As we have seen in recent years, certain right-wing parties are gaining more ground. Considering the DM's perpetual hatred of Those Wot Is Different, its Oh No Christianity Is Under Attack stories and so on, I'm getting worried that the Bee Enn Pee and similar parties along with You Kipper will see a surge in votes.

I would put my money on Labour being the actual victors - for better or for worse - but I think after B. Liar and David Cameroon & the Tea Boy, fringe parties will do a lot better. Hopefully Green get a few more seats, but... Yeah, I'm not hopeful.

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 Post subject: Re: 2015 General Election
PostPosted: Mon Mar 19, 2012 6:03 pm 
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UKIP might increase their share of the vote by picking up disillusioned Tories, but I wouldn't worry about the BNP electorially, their membership is falling and they are staving off bankruptcy due to lack of support.
The biggest danger from the far-right is not at the ballot box but increased physical violence, up to and including terrorism.

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 Post subject: Re: 2015 General Election
PostPosted: Mon Mar 19, 2012 6:04 pm 
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Perhaps, but the spectre is still kinda... um... threatening.

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 Post subject: Re: 2015 General Election
PostPosted: Mon Mar 19, 2012 6:07 pm 
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I'm with Young Winston, there's been a worrying increase in physical attacks on right-wing 'targets' such as unions, mosques, anti-racism meetings and councillors. There's a rapid response against perceived Islamic threat, but it seems that the authorities don't see the right as a problem, partly because they are disorganised and thick. The half-brick still cracks the skull, though...


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 Post subject: Re: 2015 General Election
PostPosted: Mon Mar 19, 2012 6:10 pm 
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Althea wrote:
Perhaps, but the spectre is still kinda... um... threatening.

Definitely threatening, but the nature of that threat is not BNP MPs sitting in Parliament but petrol bombs in Mosques.

Edit: Cross posting. Yes to what Malcolm said.

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Last edited by oboogie on Mon Mar 19, 2012 6:12 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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 Post subject: Re: 2015 General Election
PostPosted: Mon Mar 19, 2012 6:12 pm 
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oboogie wrote:
Definitely threatening, but the nature of that threat is not BNP MPs sitting in Parliament but petrol bombs in Mosques.

And I think the former would be preferable to the latter.

Still :(

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 Post subject: Re: 2015 General Election
PostPosted: Mon Mar 19, 2012 6:12 pm 
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And half-bricks at trade unionists, threatening the children of left-wing councillors, attacks on Labour Party meetings...


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 Post subject: Re: 2015 General Election
PostPosted: Mon Mar 19, 2012 6:15 pm 
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Althea wrote:
oboogie wrote:
Definitely threatening, but the nature of that threat is not BNP MPs sitting in Parliament but petrol bombs in Mosques.

And I think the former would be preferable to the latter.


Well quite, but I was responding to your stated fear of a BNP surge at the ballot box. You're worrying about the wrong threat.

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 Post subject: Re: 2015 General Election
PostPosted: Mon Mar 19, 2012 6:23 pm 
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I guess that's true, but I don't think it would help matters if said party got more prominent.

But thankfully it seems unlikely. That's good :)

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 Post subject: Re: 2015 General Election
PostPosted: Mon Mar 19, 2012 6:38 pm 
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Its place has been taken, to an extent, by the EDL and the British Freedom Party, as well as many defections to UKIP.


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