So, so wrong. Carl Chinn not only has no intention or running for mayor (and even if he did, he'd need to declare his candidacy so late he would have no chance), but he would not win. Birmingham is a city that in terms of the total number of votes cast, always votes Labour - even though, due to the vagaries of the ward boundaries, there has been a Tory/Lib Dem coalition running things for the past 8 years (with Labour remaining the largest party but unable to command an overall majority).
If there is an election for Mayor in Birmingham this November, it will be the Labour candidate that is elected.
And by the way, you don't think Carl is a Tory, do you? He famously never says how he votes, but I'm all but certain I know how he'll be voting on 3 May.
Whichever way he votes I'm sure he isn't a Tory. Old Labour would be my guess were there still such a thing.
Carl has never declared his intentions or otherwise of running for mayor, but anyone who knows him knows there's more that the image and I wouldn't be at all surprised if the day after nominations open he doesn't declare himself with a slick election machine ready to go. I think he would win because Labour in Birmingham are still in some turmoil and haven't captured the public imagination. His natural constituency is elderly white people, who as we've been told constantly since last week's Budget are the most likely to vote. And he would clean up the second preference votes.
I'm now in possession of some info that leads me to believe that Professor Chinn is actively preparing to swing into action if there is a YES vote. Lord knows why.