2015 General Election

Tubby Isaacs · **Posted:** Wed May 30, 2012 12:20 am

Can someone explain why there's a plan to set out spending in 2013 that goes past the general election in 2015? I mean we seem to have managed before without that kind of thing.

Does Clegg reckon we won't notice he's made a political choice to support Tory policy?

Abernathy · **Posted:** Sun Jun 03, 2012 9:32 am

Reports this morning of talks between Labour and the Lib Dems to try to "establish common ground" between the parties.

Sensible since at the next general election, we do not, attractive as it may sound superficially, want the Lib Dems to suffer total meltdown, as it will benefit the Tories' chances. In particular, we need the Lib Dems to keep doing well in seats where Labour has no chance.

But surely we can't do business with Clegg as leader? He was prepared to insist that Brown stood down as Labour leader as a condition of any agreement with Labour, so he must reciprocate and stand down.

Althea · **Posted:** Sun Jun 03, 2012 9:42 am

Abernathy wrote:

But surely we can't do business with Clegg as leader? He was prepared to insist that Brown stood down as Labour leader as a condition of any agreement with Labour, so he must reciprocate and stand down.

Clegg is tainted, and I think a few other prominent Lib Dems are (Sarah Teather, Vince Cable et al), so unless the front line of the Lib Dems changes, it's really only going to be the 'hardcore' LD voters who vote for them. On top of that they've got the absolutely shocking U Turns, spinelessness and other poor behaviour from this coalition as baggage, and unless they start to show a spine on bigger issues, a Labour/Lib coalition seems unlikely.

Gourami · **Joined:** Wed Jul 20, 2011 10:51 pm **Posts:** 2005

new puritan · **Posted:** Wed Jun 06, 2012 10:05 am

Abernathy wrote:

Reports this morning of talks between Labour and the Lib Dems to try to "establish common ground" between the parties.

Sensible since at the next general election, we do not, attractive as it may sound superficially, want the Lib Dems to suffer total meltdown, as it will benefit the Tories' chances. In particular, we need the Lib Dems to keep doing well in seats where Labour has no chance.

But surely we can't do business with Clegg as leader? He was prepared to insist that Brown stood down as Labour leader as a condition of any agreement with Labour, so he must reciprocate and stand down.

What worries me is that it appears to be Adonis who's doing much of the running. It would certainly suit the Blairites to hoover up a few Lib Dem stragglers to create a neoliberalised SDP. Having said that, Labour obviously can't afford to dismiss the prospect of a coalition with the Liberals out of hand. As you say, though, the Orange Bookers (with the possible exception of Cable) would have to make way.

mattomac · **Posted:** Wed Jun 06, 2012 12:29 pm

Wasn't Adonis one of those that were in the discussions with the Lib Dems after the election and was quite critical of the stance they took and the bullshit they spun afterwards.

Malcolm Armsteen · **Posted:** Wed Jun 06, 2012 12:30 pm

Yes. He gets this gig because he's ex-Lib Dem, having been inherited from the SDP. He then moved on a free transfer to Labour, where he is trusted as much as a cobra in a sock drawer.

Abernathy · **Posted:** Wed Jun 06, 2012 12:34 pm

Malcolm Armsteen wrote:

trusted as much as a cobra in a sock drawer.

I really like that simile. I shall remember it and use it in future.

The Red Arrow · **Posted:** Mon Jul 09, 2012 1:44 pm

How do the Tories seriously imagine they can get a majority by 2015?

Cameron's prospects of increasing his share of the vote look worse, not better, than when he first took power

Quote:

When David Cameron moved into Number 10, he did so as the poorest winner in our modern political history. The Tory share of the vote at the 2010 election was a sliver over 36%, the sort of score that would normally put a leader into opposition, not government.

Quote:

Office has not, as Tory strategists once hoped, completed the "detoxification" of their reputation with swing voters. If anything, what they have done with power has led to "retoxification". Consider swing voters who wavered about supporting the Tories in 2010 because of suspicions about their intentions towards the health service. Their fears have been increased, not allayed, by experience of the Tories in government.

http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/2012 ... vote-share

Tubby Isaacs · **Posted:** Mon Jul 09, 2012 7:44 pm

The Lib Dems might be better breaking off now. It'll be very bad, but at least they'll be competing for seats instead of having them abolished.

Abernathy · **Posted:** Mon Jul 09, 2012 11:31 pm

Well, Mad Nad and quite a few of her pals are breaking ranks tomorrow and voting against the Lords Reform Bill because they say it wasn't part of the coalition agreement (semantics - the agreement said something like "reach a view on Lords reform").

In return, pissed-off Lib Dems are muttering about kiboshing the advantageous-to-the-Tories boundary changes for 2015.

We just could be looking at the break up of the coalition. The really interesting question will then be how the necessary (required by the Parliament Act 2010) two thirds vote in favour of dissolving parliament and calling an election is engineered, given that the Lib Dems would basically be turkeys voting for Xmas. But if it goes through - get those voter id sheets ready!

Abernathy · **Posted:** Sun Aug 05, 2012 9:46 am

http://yougov.co.uk/news/2012/08/05/update-labour-lead-strong/

Tories 32
LABOUR 44
Lib Dems 10
UKIP 8

new puritan · **Posted:** Mon Aug 06, 2012 9:28 am

Looks like our old chum Louise Mensch won't be waiting until 2015 to depart from the political stage.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-19146805

Welcome news of course, but the coming by-election will be a key test of Labour's progress.

Abernathy · **Posted:** Mon Aug 06, 2012 11:33 am

Very interesting. The by-election will be on 15 November - the same day as elections for police commisioners. It's also interesting that in response to this point in Mensch's letter to Cameron :

Quote:

"As you know, I have been struggling for some time to find the best outcome for my family life, and have decided, in order to keep us together, to move to New York. With the greatest regret, I am thus resigning as a MP.
It is only through your personal intervention, delivered quietly and without fanfare, that I have been able to manage my duties for this long."

Mad Nad (correctly) observed on Twitter:

Quote:

"Interesting that Mensch was managing her working hours through the PMs office and not the usual channel of the whips office?"

I dare say this will fuel some more speculation about Boris stepping in to get back to the commons and position himself for a leadership bid - but that is unlikely to happen, as Corby & Northants is not a safe enough seat - in fact, I'd expect Labour to take it back at the by-election.

I wonder if Mensch will resume writing shit novels?

Bones McCoy · **Joined:** Mon Aug 16, 2010 9:08 am **Posts:** 7418

Abernathy wrote:

Very interesting. The by-election will be on 15 November - the same day as elections for police commisioners. It's also interesting that in response to this point in Mensch's letter to Cameron :

Quote:

"As you know, I have been struggling for some time to find the best outcome for my family life, and have decided, in order to keep us together, to move to New York. With the greatest regret, I am thus resigning as a MP.
It is only through your personal intervention, delivered quietly and without fanfare, that I have been able to manage my duties for this long."

Mad Nad (correctly) observed on Twitter:

Quote:

"Interesting that Mensch was managing her working hours through the PMs office and not the usual channel of the whips office?"

I dare say this will fuel some more speculation about Boris stepping in to get back to the commons and position himself for a leadership bid - but that is unlikely to happen, as Corby & Northants is not a safe enough seat - in fact, I'd expect Labour to take it back at the by-election.

I wonder if Mensch will resume writing shit novels?

Talking head on Fox news seems a lot more likely.
Telling the audience "How it really is" in the socialist hell-hole across the poind.

"They even have committees that ration access to botox", and other first world problems.

2015 General Election

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