Discussion of the UK Government
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#273865
Those notorious leftists at the OECD have chipped in with some helpful advice for the Gidmeister.
Unemployment will rise again in Britain next year as uncertainty about the global economic climate weighs on business confidence, the Organisation for Economic Co-operation & Development warned as it slashed its UK growth forecasts.

The Paris-based think-tank also urged the Chancellor to abandon his golden rule on the national debt rather than drive through more austerity measures to meet his target.

In May, the OECD had predicted growth of 0.5pc this year but it now reckons the economy will shrink by 0.1pc. In 2013, it was predicting 1.9pc growth. That’s now 0.9pc. Even in 2014, growth will be weak at just 1.6pc.

Unemployment is expected to rise from an average of 8pc this year to 8.3pc in 2013, but the squeeze on family finances for those in work is forecast to ease as wages climb by around 3pc next year and inflation stays at 2pc, the OECD predicted. However, it cautioned that the global economy remained at risk of a “deep recession”.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/econ ... casts.html" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Does anyone other than Shiny Dave have any faith in Osborne anymore?
#274027
Good article from Richard Seymour on Osbornomics following on from that IFS report.

http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree ... ervyn-king" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
#275270
So George Osborne hires Policy Exchange bloke to improve the party's fortunes, including in the north.

That's this Policy Exchange:

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/7556937.stm" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
Cities in northern England such as Liverpool, Sunderland and Bradford are "beyond revival" and residents should move south, a think tank has argued.
To be fair, Neill O'Brien didn't work there then and they don't expect to win Sunderland or Liverpool constituencies. But I shouldn't think the baggage will help much.
#275275
This Neil O'Brien?

We don't really have 'workfare' in the UK. But perhaps we should
No one has a right to live in Kensington at taxpayers' expense: it's time to start recycling social housing

And then, presumably after some sort of crack binge:

The Conservatives can be the new workers' party

So basically, Osborne's hand-picked a bloke who agrees with him on more or less everything as his adviser - he just happens to be from Huddersfield, and apparently that makes some sort of difference. I look forward to the radical new thinking which is sure to emerge from this partnership.
#275281
Tim Montgomerie, founder of the ConservativeHome website who has called on the leadership not to lose sight of traditional values, blogged: "This is a big loss to PX [Policy Exchange] but a big boost to No 11. O'Brien has been wooed for some time by the Tories and they've finally got their man."
Someone from Policy Exchange working for George Osborne sounds incredibly predictable to me, the sort of thing that would happen under the law of gravity. Montgomerie makes it sound like Cryuff moving from Ajax to Barcelona.

A rightwing world who tell each other how clever they are all the time.
#275282
What the Tories don't seem to realise - or refuse to accept - is that it's their economic policy that costs them northern votes. A more interventionist, statist approach would probably win them more support. People here want jobs and investment, and they're not that bothered where it comes from, as generally they don't have the sort of ingrained anti-statism that's stamped right through the modern Tory party like a stick of Blackpool rock. They used to be able to win seats in northern towns and cities until the Thatcherite neoliberal turn - Manchester hasn't elected a Tory MP since 1983, iirc.

But adopting that sort of policy would mean effectively renouncing the legacy of Thatcherism, and they won't do it. I've seen Tories saying that they need to be more socially and fiscally conservative to win northern votes, but that's just bollocks and them telling themselves what they want to hear. I think that's the sort of thing Neil O'Brien will come up with, and I don't think it will do them any favours.
#275286
It's in Greater Manchester but not the city itself - the last Manchester Tory MP was Fred Silvester, I think. Most of that seat is part of Stretford and Urmston now, which funnily enough is safe Labour. The last real Tory holdout is Altrincham and Sale West, which includes really posh places like Hale Barns. There are a few Lab-Con marginals dotted about the area, although the collapse of the Lib Dem vote may change matters.
#275568
Chancellor George Osborne has admitted that curbing the UK's financial deficit is "taking longer" than planned.
Tim Reid BBC political correspondent

George Osborne wants to get some of the bad news out of the way early

But the admission that his key target on debt reduction is likely to be missed will be an open goal for his political opponents.

Labour, and others, will now seek to paint the chancellor as a man who has got his sums and his policies wrong.

Missing such an important target could also harm any prospect of the coalition parties doing well at the next general election.

David Cameron and Nick Clegg had hoped that, if the economy was back on track and the deficit down by 2015, they might persuade voters that the coalition government had done a good job.

If the books aren't balanced by then, voters might be less willing to agree.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-20571621" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

LiBDems making noises about mansion tax again...Gideon's talking (yes, you've guessed it) welfare cuts.

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#275571
There's a good article from Larry Elliott putting Osborne's performance as chancellor into perspective.

http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/2012 ... year-worse" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
Michael Saunders, UK economist at Citibank, said even after the 1% growth in the third quarter of 2012, Britain had experienced the "worst recession-recovery cycle for many decades".

GDP is 3.1% below where it was when the recession began 18 quarters ago in early 2008. "By contrast, real GDP was 4-5% above the pre-recession peak at this stage in the 70s and 80s cycles, and 7-8% above the peak in the 1990s", Saunders said.

In his first budget, in June 2010, Osborne said forecasts produced by the Office for Budget Responsibility showed that the economy would be expanding by 2.8% in 2012, with the budget deficit down to £60bn in the 2013-14 financial year. In the 2011 budget, the OBR said growth would be lower at 2.5% and the deficit higher at £70bn. In the March 2012 budget, it estimated growth of 0.8% and a deficit of £98bn.

On Wednesday Osborne will admit that even these forecasts have proved too optimistic.
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By satnav
Membership Days Membership Days Posts
#275573
Osborne was on the news earlier saying that countries need to work together to try and ensure that companies like Starbuck's pay a fair amount of tax. I'm sure that when the EU proposed such a move earlier in the year Cameron and Osborne both through their dummies out of the pram and vetoed the move.
#275575
I noted that Osborne yet again trotted out this notion of the hard working individual leaving for work every morning at 7am while the unemployed dole-scrounging shirker three doors down snoozes on until Jeremy Kyle time. What the Tories want you to believe (and want the hard-of-thinking to buy into) is that there is a widespread seething resentment that these sponging bastards are unfairly getting away with this, and deserve to be harshly dealt with right now by cutting back on their benefits and making it more difficult than ever to claim them. The right-wing press willingly assists in spreading this guff.

But it's UTTER bollocks. I've been lucky enough to be in regular employment for virtually all of my working life, and never once did I ever begrudge support from our welfare system for those who can't get work. It never even crossed my mind. There are some who buy into the Tory myth, undoubtedly, but I simply do not believe that that view is anything like a widespread norm. That doesn't of course, prevent the Tory cuntitude from trying actively to make it so.

Jeebus sometimes these cunts make me SO angry it almost leads to burst blood vessels. I need to relax.
#275576
If you have an HQ somewhere in the single market you can trade freely in it. I think Ireland and Luxembourg are the two main low tax places for HQs.

Time for us to capitalise on all that bridge building we've done. And if those countries say "sod off, we're protecting our sovereignty, here's our veto" we will have tons of moral high ground.
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