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Re: The Great Mailwatch Prime Minister Predictathon

Posted: Wed Jun 12, 2019 10:26 am
by Andy McDandy
Tessa Jowell made the bid, Sebastian Coe delivered the event. Boris fucked about and stole the limelight.

Re: The Great Mailwatch Prime Minister Predictathon

Posted: Wed Jun 12, 2019 1:38 pm
by Boiler
Apparently from the Johnson launch:

Beth Rigby: "Why did you call Muslim women letterboxes?"
Boris Johnson: "British people want politicians to say what they mean."

Audience applauds.

https://news.sky.com/video/boris-johnso ... s-11740408

We're fucked. :(

Re: The Great Mailwatch Prime Minister Predictathon

Posted: Wed Jun 12, 2019 1:56 pm
by The Red Arrow

Re: The Great Mailwatch Prime Minister Predictathon

Posted: Wed Jun 12, 2019 2:19 pm
by cycloon
Boiler wrote:
Wed Jun 12, 2019 1:38 pm
Apparently from the Johnson launch:

Beth Rigby: "Why did you call Muslim women letterboxes?"
Boris Johnson: "British people want politicians to say what they mean."

Audience applauds.

https://news.sky.com/video/boris-johnso ... s-11740408

We're fucked. :(
But don't you dare insist Britain isn't tolerant.

The whole song and dance about sincerity/'authenticity' is such a drain. People can be as shallow and deceitful as fuck as long as they say precisely the right formulations and people take them as genuine.

Re: The Great Mailwatch Prime Minister Predictathon

Posted: Wed Jun 12, 2019 2:23 pm
by crabcakes_windermere
Likely scenario: Johnson ends up as PM, we're all fucked

Preferred but incredibly unlikely scenario: Rory Stewart ends up as PM

Best possible dream scenario: Johnson is elected leader, cannot get confidence of the house, has to call a GE, Tory vote is weakened by Brexit party but his popularity is enough to just see them split votes rather than one dominate, letting in others, Lib Dems do well enough to form a sizeable block and can form a coalition with a weakened Labour, Corbyn/Milne are thus neutralised and we move to either revoke or 2nd referendum with Remain parties on the upswing and leave parties mired in infighting.

Re: The Great Mailwatch Prime Minister Predictathon

Posted: Wed Jun 12, 2019 2:34 pm
by Boiler
crabcakes_windermere wrote:
Wed Jun 12, 2019 2:23 pm
Likely scenario: Johnson ends up as PM, we're all fucked

Preferred but incredibly unlikely scenario: Rory Stewart ends up as PM

Best possible dream scenario: Johnson is elected leader, cannot get confidence of the house, has to call a GE, Tory vote is weakened by Brexit party but his popularity is enough to just see them split votes rather than one dominate, letting in others, Lib Dems do well enough to form a sizeable block and can form a coalition with a weakened Labour, Corbyn/Milne are thus neutralised and we move to either revoke or 2nd referendum with Remain parties on the upswing and leave parties mired in infighting.
Well, we can dream... :(

Re: The Great Mailwatch Prime Minister Predictathon

Posted: Wed Jun 12, 2019 5:39 pm
by oboogie
crabcakes_windermere wrote:
Wed Jun 12, 2019 2:23 pm
Likely scenario: Johnson ends up as PM, we're all fucked

Preferred but incredibly unlikely scenario: Rory Stewart ends up as PM

Best possible dream scenario: Johnson is elected leader, cannot get confidence of the house, has to call a GE, Tory vote is weakened by Brexit party but his popularity is enough to just see them split votes rather than one dominate, letting in others, Lib Dems do well enough to form a sizeable block and can form a coalition with a weakened Labour, Corbyn/Milne are thus neutralised and we move to either revoke or 2nd referendum with Remain parties on the upswing and leave parties mired in infighting.
Once Johnson is elected leader the Brexiters will drop Farage like hot shit. In a GE against Corbyn, Johnson wins a triple figure majority with a united Brexiter vote against a divided Remain one.

I much prefer your version.

Re: The Great Mailwatch Prime Minister Predictathon

Posted: Wed Jun 12, 2019 5:43 pm
by Arrowhead
crabcakes_windermere wrote:
Wed Jun 12, 2019 2:23 pm
Best possible dream scenario: Johnson is elected leader, cannot get confidence of the house, has to call a GE, Tory vote is weakened by Brexit party but his popularity is enough to just see them split votes rather than one dominate, letting in others, Lib Dems do well enough to form a sizeable block and can form a coalition with a weakened Labour, Corbyn/Milne are thus neutralised and we move to either revoke or 2nd referendum with Remain parties on the upswing and leave parties mired in infighting.
I think the SNP will likely have a big say in how things play out as well. They may well end up back on fifty or seats at the next GE, which is about twenty more than what the Lib Dem’s can realistically hope to achieve (unless the Tories have gone into full meltdown, in which case all bets are off).

Re: The Great Mailwatch Prime Minister Predictathon

Posted: Wed Jun 12, 2019 5:48 pm
by oboogie
Arrowhead wrote:
Wed Jun 12, 2019 5:43 pm
I think the SNP will likely have a big say in how things play out as well. They may well end up back on fifty or seats at the next GE, which is about twenty more than what the Lib Dem’s can realistically hope to achieve (unless the Tories have gone into full meltdown, in which case all bets are off).
Can you talk me through this Tory meltdown of which you speak, how does that come about?

Re: The Great Mailwatch Prime Minister Predictathon

Posted: Wed Jun 12, 2019 6:37 pm
by satnav
I think the problem with Johnson calling a general election is that he really on has a very small window of opportunity in which to call the election. With the leadership election not due to be completed until the end of July any attempt at getting anything through the commons is not likely to happen until early September. Unless an election has been called by the end of September you are looking at a Winter general election.

Re: The Great Mailwatch Prime Minister Predictathon

Posted: Wed Jun 12, 2019 7:13 pm
by Bones McCoy
oboogie wrote:
Wed Jun 12, 2019 5:48 pm
Arrowhead wrote:
Wed Jun 12, 2019 5:43 pm
I think the SNP will likely have a big say in how things play out as well. They may well end up back on fifty or seats at the next GE, which is about twenty more than what the Lib Dem’s can realistically hope to achieve (unless the Tories have gone into full meltdown, in which case all bets are off).
Can you talk me through this Tory meltdown of which you speak, how does that come about?
The scenario I see as most likely is that PM Boris blusters a lot, but completely fails to deliver the will of the people by Halloween.

He follows up by quoting some poem he found in "Poetry of the empire 1912".
Preferably one with a bit of Latin in; Vitae Lampada, but definately note Dulce et Decorum est.

Next deadline rolls around (Valentine's day anybody) and we're no closer to realising the will of the people.
Tax cuts for higher rate payers, but after another shock retail collapse we find that the pension protection fund has been, err, de-funded in order to finance some Boris vanity project.
Farage sees an opportunity and starts demanding a role.

6 months of clusterfuck and ratings are through the floor, even teh Sun is calling for an election.
Tommeh describes Johnson as a "poncey tennis wanker"

Re: The Great Mailwatch Prime Minister Predictathon

Posted: Wed Jun 12, 2019 8:07 pm
by Arrowhead
oboogie wrote:
Wed Jun 12, 2019 5:48 pm
Can you talk me through this Tory meltdown of which you speak, how does that come about?
Just a continuation of what is currently happening to them already i.e. being eaten alive at both ends. This scenario would see the Lib Dems successfully pull cross the more socially-liberal moderates who were atrracted back to the party in 2010 by Cameron's breezy optimism (don't scoff, I have friends who fall into this camp), whilst the swivel-eyed loons continue to flock to Farage and his No Deal new religion.

I don't necessarily think a full meltdown will happen, simply because at some stage I suspect the Tories to enter into some sort of grisly electoral pact with BXP in a last-ditch attempt to hoover up the Leave vote under a single banner. The worrying thing is, when up against such a listless and disillusioned Labour Party, they may well succeed.

Re: The Great Mailwatch Prime Minister Predictathon

Posted: Thu Jun 13, 2019 8:34 am
by oboogie
Bones McCoy wrote:
Wed Jun 12, 2019 7:13 pm

The scenario I see as most likely is that PM Boris blusters a lot, but completely fails to deliver the will of the people by Halloween.

He follows up by quoting some poem he found in "Poetry of the empire 1912".
Preferably one with a bit of Latin in; Vitae Lampada, but definately note Dulce et Decorum est.

Next deadline rolls around (Valentine's day anybody) and we're no closer to realising the will of the people.
Tax cuts for higher rate payers, but after another shock retail collapse we find that the pension protection fund has been, err, de-funded in order to finance some Boris vanity project.
Farage sees an opportunity and starts demanding a role.

6 months of clusterfuck and ratings are through the floor, even teh Sun is calling for an election.
Tommeh describes Johnson as a "poncey tennis wanker"
You're presuming another extension will be sought and granted.
Plus, in order to deliver Brexit (as defined by Brexiters) by October 31st, Johnson needs to do precisely nothing.
UK crashes out, Johnson calls snap election - grateful Brexiters deliver Johnson a majority.

Re: The Great Mailwatch Prime Minister Predictathon

Posted: Thu Jun 13, 2019 8:50 am
by Abernathy
Here's how it may play :

Boris’s tactics will be to renegotiate with Brussels, which won’t work. Then to try to get leaving without a deal through the Commons, which won’t work. Then he'll go to the Queen seeking a general election, which the Tories will win convincingly. Then there will be an EU exit with no deal.

Then....misery all round. Corbyn debacle ends at last. If Labour isn't completely moribund by then, then perhaps it may come back with sensible leadership and begin to rebuild. Quite a few of us will be gone by then.

Re: The Great Mailwatch Prime Minister Predictathon

Posted: Thu Jun 13, 2019 9:09 am
by Boiler
Abernathy wrote:
Thu Jun 13, 2019 8:50 am
Then....misery all round. Corbyn debacle ends at last. If Labour isn't completely moribund by then, then perhaps it may come back with sensible leadership and begin to rebuild. Quite a few of us will be gone by then.
No, he will remain in position, the Cult will praise him and say "we weren't radical enough!". Oh, and say "we won."