[Tubby Isaacs]

The Remain Alliance is on. And Labour voters in Abercrave/ Ystradganlais know not to waste their vote on Jez.

[Arrowhead]

The Remain Alliance is on. And Labour voters in Abercrave/ Ystradganlais know not to waste their vote on Jez.

That is very welcome news indeed. But how crap is it to see an embryonic Progressive Alliance finally start to form in this country, and Labour are absolutely nowhere to be seen? A total fiasco.

If this Remain Alliance starts to firm up over the coming weeks and months, I just hope they don't go the full Change UK and start talking about putting up candidates against ostensibly like-minded opponents, in this case prominent Labour Remainers. David Lammy doesn't need to lose any sleep in his Tottenham constituency, but any PV advocate on the Labour side without at least a 7,000 cushion against the Tories could quickly become unstuck if a chunk of their vote suddenly disappears elsewhere. There are plenty of easy pickings out there for the Tories to feast upon if, God help us, they stitch back together their voter coalition in quick time.

I suppose a similar favour would also need to be extended to "outspoken" Tory Remainers such as, say, Grieve and Gyimah.

[Tubby Isaacs]

Labour have handily defined themselves as not Remain here, haven't they? If Brecon and Radnor Lib Dems are such bad folk, why is the AM from the same seat (Kirsty Williams) in the Welsh Government with Labour?

But be fair, there are millions of heartland" Labour voters ready to jump ship. "I was onside with Corbyn until they did that deal with the Brecon and Radnor metropolitan elite"

[youngian]

I just hope they don't go the full Change UK and start talking about putting up candidates against ostensibly like-minded opponents, in this case prominent Labour Remainers.

UKIP did that in 2017 standing down for nutters like Stewart Jackson but it didn’t quite work. Voters don’t like the smell of a stitch up and don’t always do what they are told.

[Tubby Isaacs]

Jez got a free run from UKIP and the Referendum Party in 1997. They got that one right.

[Tubby Isaacs]

First prediction I've seen. The Tories and Brexit getting more than the Lib Dem "Remainer alliance" wouldn't be great optics.

[Arrowhead]

First prediction I've seen. The Tories and Brexit getting more than the Lib Dem "Remainer alliance" wouldn't be great optics.

I suspect the Lib Dems will comfortably exceed 40% on this occasion. They managed just below 30% at the last two GE's when virtually everything was against them, and Farage/UKIP only managed a fairly modest 8% there in 2015.

I still cannot believe the arrogance of the Tories putting up the same, disgraced candidate for this by-election.

[Killer Whale]

I still cannot believe the arrogance of the Tories putting up the same, disgraced candidate for this by-election.

I'm hearing that his personal vote is holding up quite well, which doesn't surprise me too much. He has a following amongst the "B&R = West Hereford" set of which he and his family are very much a part.

The interesting thing is that there have been rumours for years that he was forced to leave his career in auctions/estate agency for 'reasons', but these have never surfaced. Since I first heard of this from Tories, I took them seriously, but I'd have thought that by now, considering the infighting over his candidacy within the local Tories, this may have become public. So maybe there was nothing to it after all.

[Tubby Isaacs]

He won't be so popular in the "North Valleys" part of the constituency. But will that area go Lib Dem?

[Daley Mayle]

The Tories know that they will lose this seat and it suits them for the losing candidate to be the one who caused the by-election rather than parachuting in someone new. As has been said, he has some solid support locally and a new face might not have picked up these (possibly now disgruntled) Tory voters thus making the expected loss worse.

[Killer Whale]

He won't be so popular in the "North Valleys" part of the constituency. But will that area go Lib Dem?

As I commented earlier, it's not really a run-of-the-mill Valleys area, having much in common with both the English-speaking valleys to the east and the Welsh-speaking, Plaid-voting, Carmarthenshire valleys immediately to the west. Historically, the area's Labour voters have lent their votes to the Lib Dems, but this was reduced significantly in 2015 and 2017. Will they switch back or go Brexit? And will the area's Plaid voters automatically go Lib Dem? It's said that as many as 40% of Plaid voters are leavers, after all.

[Tubby Isaacs]

Ystradganlais and Abercrave feel like Neath Port Talbot to me though I don't know them well. I'm hopeful Plaid Brexiters won't put Farage in but not sure what they'll do.

[youngian]

Plaid Brexiters

Are they Welsh Enver Hoxhas?

[Tubby Isaacs]

Not sure who they are. Are Plaid Rhondda voters mire Brexitty than Plaid Gwynnedd voters?

[Killer Whale]

Not a massive surprise, TBH. And the Brexit Party would have been utterly stupid to halt their momentum by even thinking about it.

The Conservatives asked the Brexit Party about not putting up a candidate for an upcoming by-election, it has been claimed.

Several sources told BBC Wales the Tories had discussed a possible pro-Brexit electoral pact in Brecon and Radnorshire.

It is said the idea was made by the party's constituency chairman Peter Weavers. However, Mr Weavers has denied the claim.

https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-wales-politics-49146865