[Snowflake]

As long as Johnson isn't setting the agenda, I feel a lot easier. Norman Smith on the BBC news a bit earlier remarked that his strategy appears to have blown up in his face. So far so good it seems.

[Bones McCoy]

God knows what happens then. I suppose we're back to does the Government follow the legislation or not?

If no deal is voted down, Johnson cannot command a majority and he cannot find 2/3 to calla general election then he is stranded.
He will have lost control of the situation.
His tame weasels will doubtless fish for procedural get-outs, appear on the news and reassure us all that this is perfectly normal.
But his strategy of rolling one crisis over another to avoid scrutiny will have failed.

This sets the situation back to the Macron meeting.
"Listen Pierre, Let's negotiate a better deal".
"OK Rosbif, let's hear your plan".

We've suspected that there is no plan.
This is Johnson's last chance to deploy his plan and deliver a deal.
Either that or proceed with his program of frankly Corbynesque spending on NHS, Schools and Police.

[crabcakes_windermere]

I reckon if BJ loses today then also can't pass a GE motion, he may go for a second referendum before he can be VONCd. It'll be his only route left to staying in power, he knows everyone wants it so it will pass, and Cummings will tell him he can win it and put an end to any suggestion the will of the people isn't still to leave (and Cummings will assume he really can win it because he'll be planning to cheat and gerrymander it as much as possible).

Johnson will blame literally everyone that he's had to do it, and Farage/JRM will whine and moan but they'll begrudgingly support it over allowing a Corbyn (or other) caretaker govt. to kill no deal and then set up a referendum on their own terms.

[Arrowhead]

This thread certainly provides some food for thought, and doesn't make for particularly happy reading from a Remain perspective.

If I were a Tory strategist right now, I'd be feeling a lot more confident about the upcoming election following the LD conference.

[Tubby Isaacs]

I can't work out the electoral logic at all. Lots of the West Country, the nearest thing to a heartland they have, voted Leave. One could be forgiven for thinking the whole point of it was not to have to deal with Corbyn in a Remain alliance. They had the "Remain" brand anyway, that's one thing Farron did right for them. Where was the popular clamour for revoking anyway?

[Arrowhead]

I can't work out the electoral logic at all. Lots of the West Country, the nearest thing to a heartland they have, voted Leave. One could be forgiven for thinking the whole point of it was not to have to deal with Corbyn in a Remain alliance. They had the "Remain" brand anyway, that's one thing Farron did right for them. Where was the popular clamour for revoking anyway?

I suppose the LD's could point to the 'Revoke & Remain' online petition which ended up gaining 6 million+ signatures. But I think a lot of people, myself included, signed that petition out of pure exasperation - it was launched at the peak of Labour's Milne-inspired passivity, and came immediately after May's appalling speech inviting the public to blame MP's for her Brexit woes. For a lot of people, it was an emotion-driven gag reflex against the gibbering insanity unfolding before us on a daily basis at the time.

I suspect the LD's see their future as being able to present themselves as a sane alternative to the Tories, which is probably what is fueling much of the anti-Labour rhetoric we're hearing from them right now. But it's extremely unhelpful to the Remain cause, not least because - fleetingly - virtually all of the anti-Tory parties finally seemed to be on the same page as one another with regards to Brexit.

[crabcakes_windermere]

I suspect it will calm down again post conference season. People don't head to their respective party's big bash to hear how they're going to cosy up to someone else.

This was about showing where things are now. Labour now know the price for a Lib Dem/SNP deal will be a referendum (or 2, if you count another indyref). They - or rather Corbyn - can bang on about being neutral, but they know the situation. Boris is going to have to stick to hard leave or risk Farage stealing seats, and will trhow everything at staying in power. It's a case of everyone vs them, and inexplicably Corbyn still thinks he can appeal to everyone simultaneously and that we'll all trust him to actually put the right choices on a referendum paper rather than some sort of fudge that pushes his preferred option and wrecks straight remain.

Corbyn has to pick a side, whether he likes it or not, or get out of the way for someone who will. Or he will be the one pushing voters to other parties. A Labour leader saying 'the choice is too hard - you make it', where one option even in its mildest form will devastate the least well off for decades is no leader at all.

[Tubby Isaacs]

Corbyn's picked a side for Labour, to be fair to him. The position of renegotiating is a nonsense. But referendum with Remain is good enough for me.

I can't see how the Lib Dems can do any major Remainery with him as leader from what they've said. I reckon sane long term alternative to the Tories is a good position for them but it doesn't help us with Brexit now. Are they treating this election as consolidation, getting all their competitive second places back?

[crabcakes_windermere]

My worry is he hasn’t picked a side - he’s merely done enough to keep his own lexit dream on life support.

Say Labour do well at the GE - history shows he’d immediately take that as endorsement of his position regardless of what any data about tactical voting shows. He then sets up the referendum with his ‘sensible choices’ - which end up being Labour’s slightly softer Brexit or no deal. He can then claim to be offering a sensible choice to remainers in that they’ll keep many elements of remain, but still respect the referendum result.

He would be arrogant and stupid enough to do it, and that’s why the stronger the other parties push for remain/revoke, and the more pressure is put on Corbyn to accept uncaveated remain as Labour policy, the better.

I genuinely think he would rather snatch defeat from the jaws of victory than compromise so he can maintain his bloody dogma, he’s that stubborn.

[Tubby Isaacs]

His Brexit is BINO rather than Lexit. I think it's more that he is scared of being seen to disregard the referendum.

But any deal he negotiates isn't going to be seen as Brexit. He'd be better off sticking No Deal in a referendum.

[Arrowhead]

I guess this is where the upcoming Labour conference will reveal all. Like everyone else on here, I don't want to see any more caveats or provisos or stipulations. I want to see a clear, unambiguous commitment that Labour will hold a confirmatory referendum with Remain as an option versus whatever gubbins of a Brexit deal they manage to cobble together. If we get that commitment, then I'm fully on board.

And as for Corbyn himself - well, to quote a great philosopher of our times, personally I couldn't give a flying flamingos what his eventual stance is. What is of far more relevance is that the wider Labour family would be free to campaign for Remain without fear of reprisal. I can put up with the occasional dimwitted Lexiter such as Lavery bouncing around on a stage alongside, presumably, Hoey and Farage so long as we reach the final destination of that confirmatory referendum. Only then can we finally drive a damn stake through Brexit's heart, and actually move on with our lives.

[lord_kobel]

His Brexit is BINO rather than Lexit.

What he's claiming to support now might be, but I wouldn't trust him not to go back on that given any sort of chance.

[Tubby Isaacs]

I think Lexit is dead. It would have to be basically No Deal, which he couldn't support.

[lord_kobel]

I wouldn't trust him not to....

[Arrowhead]

I wouldn't trust him not to....

Even though he played a prominent role in thwarting Johnson's recent shenanigans, including overseeing the safe passage of the Benn bill into law? Crikey