Topics about the Labour Party
:sunglasses: 57.3 % ❤ 1.3 % :thumbsup: 10.8 % 😯 1.3 % :grinning: 21.7 % 🧥 0.6 % 🙏 0.6 % 😟 3.2 % :cry: 1.9 % :shit: 1.3 %
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By visage
Membership Days Posts
#577171
More questions than answers, after last night.

If you mobilise a massive activist base, parachute in every big hitter in the party, and still lose 18% of your vote, thats not necessarily something to celebrate.

Secondly, this result reinforces the fragmentation of politics - we're going to see a lot more three and four way marginals - which means that there are going to be less safe seats than before.

So if you need to focus on every seat, rather than a core of a few dozen marginals, and you need to utilize massive amounts of manpower to win those seats, then where do the bodies come from?
oboogie liked this
 
By bluebellnutter
Membership Days Membership Days Posts
#577177
Big Arnold wrote:
Fri Jun 07, 2019 6:57 am
UKIP never won a seat in the UK parliament
Douglas Carswell? Mark Reckless?
By karlt
Membership Days
#577201
visage wrote:
Fri Jun 07, 2019 8:51 am
More questions than answers, after last night.

If you mobilise a massive activist base, parachute in every big hitter in the party, and still lose 18% of your vote, thats not necessarily something to celebrate.

Secondly, this result reinforces the fragmentation of politics - we're going to see a lot more three and four way marginals - which means that there are going to be less safe seats than before.

So if you need to focus on every seat, rather than a core of a few dozen marginals, and you need to utilize massive amounts of manpower to win those seats, then where do the bodies come from?
I think it makes for interesting times. In three or four way marginals one can win with a share of the vote in the 20s or low 30s - in 2017 the SNP in Scotland held what 35 out of 59 seats with around 35% of the vote.

This raises the possibility of a majority in the HoC based on around a third of the popular vote. It might make people start taking another look at FPTP.
 
By davidjay
Membership Days Membership Days Posts
#577210
There can rarely have been a by-election where all the major parties did badly. BXP will never have such favourable conditions but they still lost, the Tory vote drained away, the Lib Dems didn't make much headway, the Greens made hardly any impact and most importantly for us, a government- in-waiting shouldn't be losing so many of its voters and scraping home in a seat they were defending.
 
By crabcakes_windermere
Membership Days Posts LikeBB
#577213
davidjay wrote:
Fri Jun 07, 2019 11:28 am
There can rarely have been a by-election where all the major parties did badly. BXP will never have such favourable conditions but they still lost, the Tory vote drained away, the Lib Dems didn't make much headway, the Greens made hardly any impact and most importantly for us, a government- in-waiting shouldn't be losing so many of its voters and scraping home in a seat they were defending.
I think Labour won this one because the Tory vote collapse wasn't as bad as it could have been. Vote shares were (2017 to 2019 percentages):

Lab: 48.1 > 30.9
BXP: n/a > 28.9
Con: 46.8 > 21.4
LD: 3.3 > 12.3
GP: 1.8 > 3.1

Turnout: 67.5 > 48.4

That's a big jump for the LDs, a big drop for the main parties, and a very close call.

While it didn't make much difference to the result for the LDs here, nationally that sort of swing would be a massive upheaval.
 
By davidjay
Membership Days Membership Days Posts
#577214
Boiler wrote:
Fri Jun 07, 2019 11:38 am
I would however point out that Labour's majority increased, and there's no doubt that Onasanya had a negative effect on some voters.
True, but against that if BXP didn't exist the Tories would have pissed it.
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