Topics about the Labour Party
:sunglasses: 63.5 % ❤ 1.4 % :thumbsup: 4.3 % 😯 0.7 % :grinning: 20.9 % 🧥 1.4 % 🙏 2.2 % 😟 1.8 % :cry: 2.2 % :shit: 1.4 %
  •  
  •  
  •  
  •  
By Dan
Membership Days Membership Days
#583932
Corbyn has taken a giant leap in the right direction but this whole gambit does hinge on Labour winning a General Election which I fear may be the issue for other Remainers.

In order to achieve a realistic public vote, those opposed to No Deal on the Tory side will effectively have to support Corbyn in an election campaign as this would be the only realistic way of achieving another referendum or a softer deal. I don't think they could do that and there's no guarantee that Labour would come out on top with Johnson and Cummings using every trick in the book to win. They'd pledge No Deal to neutralize Farage and Johnson, for his many faults, will not be as feeble as May on the campaign trail. He may lose supporters but it may well get him enough to win a majority if the Remain vote continues to split. They are also sociopathic enough to use the "People v Parliament" thing and will not care a jot about the risk to politicians. Should they be able to do that before any public vote, Remain or Soft Brexit MP's may worry that Jo Cox would be the tip of the iceberg.

Corbyn deserves first shot at leading an Emergency Government as he is the LOTO and has more of a mandate. However, if he cannot be persuaded to hold a public vote (and implement the result, whatever it is) before an election campaign, they will have to persuade him to step aside for someone who does. They can all then fight an election on party lines.

Should he not do this and allow Johnson the hardest crash-out Brexit, I cannot see him coming back as a political force.
Arrowhead liked this
 
By Tubby Isaacs
Membership Days Membership Days Posts
#583934
This is my reading of it too- Swinson is worried about "Vote Jo, Get Jez". She went much too far in turning down talks though.

I don't know if Tory backbenchers apart from Guto Bebb are prepared to put Corbyn in as caretaker, are they? Spelman, who is one of the more sensible ones, and who has a big car factory near her constituency to worry about, has rowed back from cooperating with Corbyn.
 
By Tubby Isaacs
Membership Days Membership Days Posts
#583936
Dan wrote:
Fri Aug 16, 2019 11:26 am
Corbyn has taken a giant leap in the right direction but this whole gambit does hinge on Labour winning a General Election which I fear may be the issue for other Remainers.

In order to achieve a realistic public vote, those opposed to No Deal on the Tory side will effectively have to support Corbyn in an election campaign as this would be the only realistic way of achieving another referendum or a softer deal. I don't think they could do that and there's no guarantee that Labour would come out on top with Johnson and Cummings using every trick in the book to win. They'd pledge No Deal to neutralize Farage and Johnson, for his many faults, will not be as feeble as May on the campaign trail. He may lose supporters but it may well get him enough to win a majority if the Remain vote continues to split. They are also sociopathic enough to use the "People v Parliament" thing and will not care a jot about the risk to politicians. Should they be able to do that before any public vote, Remain or Soft Brexit MP's may worry that Jo Cox would be the tip of the iceberg.

Corbyn deserves first shot at leading an Emergency Government as he is the LOTO and has more of a mandate. However, if he cannot be persuaded to hold a public vote (and implement the result, whatever it is) before an election campaign, they will have to persuade him to step aside for someone who does. They can all then fight an election on party lines.

Should he not do this and allow Johnson the hardest crash-out Brexit, I cannot see him coming back as a political force.
Agree with this.

Another reason Johnson will be formidable is that he'll have looked at Trump and seen that the Right don't care about deficits. If they want 20,000 cops, they'll get them, with some waffle about how "everybody knows cutting taxes grows the economy". The OBR aren't allowed to audit manifestos, so it'll be dependent on people like the IFS getting traction in the media (plus Labour's own campaigners, of course).
 
By Abernathy
Membership Days Membership Days Posts
#583937
The sole thing that Corbyn's proposal would achieve would be to stop only the immediate prospect of a "no deal" Brexit on 31 October by requesting another A50 extension.

It would not eliminate the prospect completely because doing so would still be dependent on defeating the Tories in the general election that Corbyn is insisting on holding before the referendum that is actually needed.

Even then, given Corbyn's record, we still have no guarantee that he would not pursue his absurd fantasy of negotiating his own "Labour Brexit" instead of an immediate, essential referendum.

It is in turn pretty unlikely at best that Labour could win a majority in the election (in fact it's even unlikely that he could muster the required two thirds majority in the commons required actually to call the election), so the prospect of "no deal" still looms, and would probably return and go ahead if Johnson wins the election.

You have to say that if Corbyn was really interested in opposing and reversing Brexit, he would not only try to maximise the prospects of a caretaker government by dropping his insistence on him leading it, but would agree that the first immediate priority after extending A50 of the caretaker government should be a further referendum, and the last act of that government should be to call the general election.

As things stand, there is no prospect of the numbers stacking up to enable his caretaker government proposal as it is currently.

John Mann, Anna Soubry, Chris Leslie and Mike Gapes have all said they would not back any potential government led by Corbyn on the terms he's talking about.So he's already in a worse position for a no confidence vote than before.

And I will bet you anything you like you can add Kate Hoey, Ian Austin, Frank Field and the other two Tiggers, Ann Coffey and Joan Ryan, to that list.

Then there's Luciana Berger, Angela Smith, Gavin Shuker and Ivan Lewis who are all sitting as independents and all hate Corbyn, justifiably so. Even if they only abstain Corbyn loses.

Next up we have Labour's Brexit supporting rebels. The hard left ones, your Dennis Skinner and Ronnie Campbell types will probably fall into line. But what about Gloria de Piero, who has already said she's not standing again so can't be bullied into line with deselection threats?

Then there's others who have voted for Brexit or spoken about wanting a soft Brexit. MPs like Gareth Snell, Ruth Smeeth, John Spellar, Caroline Flint, Stephen Kinnock, Lisa Nandy.

To scrape a bare majority to make him Prime Minister even for a week or two which seems to be the bizarre fantasy going round at the moment he needs every single one of those votes. The DUP aren't ever going to vote to put Mr IRA into Number 10 so every one of those people named above he'd need to replace with a Tory to win. Even if you assume all of the ones that might pause to think about it eventually back him, that's still another 13 Tories he'd need. And all of the Liberal Democrats, including Chuka Umunna whom he refused to even sit in the same room as to discuss stopping a no deal Brexit as recently as last March.

Jo Swinson has got it absolutely right. The numbers simply aren't there to make Corbyn caretaker PM. He himself is the biggest obstacle to the realisation of any government of national unity.
lord_kobel, Boiler, oboogie liked this
 
By Abernathy
Membership Days Membership Days Posts
#583944
Tubby Isaacs wrote:
Fri Aug 16, 2019 12:59 pm
The problem with Swinson wasn't that Jez has the numbers. It was that working with Jez is a necessity for stopping No Deal. She ought to have been able to steer a course between putting him in as Prime Minister (caretaker) and not showing up for talks.
Han't she now agreed to meet for talks to explore going for a GoNU, but still insists (correctly, IMO) that Corbyn is not the man for the job of caretaker PM?

What would the bogus doctor say? Scratch that - I know exactly what he'd say.
oboogie liked this
 
By Tubby Isaacs
Membership Days Membership Days Posts
#583945
She got it right later, but I think the initial response was wrong. Will it matter? I don't know.

In other news, to no great surprise.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/20 ... our-brexit
Dominic Grieve: I don’t want to put Jeremy Corbyn into No 10
Tory will meet Labour leader to stop no-deal Brexit but will not help him become PM
By Dan
Membership Days Membership Days
#583947
It's taken such a while to get Corbyn to do anything actually productive to avoid a No Deal Brexit that it's at least a good start although I do agree that his stance only prevents it from happening immediately*.

His motives for wanting an election first are not entirely altruistic either. He has probably figured that if he called a referendum first (presumably between No Deal and Remain) that he'll firmly cop of all the blame from Leavers if Brexit is cancelled via a Remain win and none or not enough of the credit from Remainers (if Remain wins) due to his dallying in getting to this position. He needs to dangle a referendum if Labour won a General Election as it may well be their only shot at becoming the largest party although that has huge issues as pointed out in my last post.

A referendum with a Remain win (followed by cancellation of Article 50), bizarrely, boosts Johnson more than it does Corbyn. Johnson, not being a true Brexiteer, can extradite himself from this by, legitimately, stating that he tried everything to push Brexit through but was overruled and stopped against his will from implementing the result. This being technically true in the event that this happens, it won't harm him more than a No Deal crash-out would when it becomes apparent what that means.

I think Corbyn would have to go for a referendum upon hypothetically taking power after election because while it is possible that Labour may become the largest party, I cannot see him winning enough of a majority to be able to ditch this, presuming he wants to which I do not know. He'll need support and his feet will be held to the fire - you want your anti austerity revolution pushed through, you provide a referendum.

Therefore, that is not the main concern. The concern is him getting to power to provide it. I suspect someone with no desire to lead their party will need to run the Emergency Government. Should Corbyn not accept this, the fallout will be the end of his political career if he allows Johnson to push No Deal through.

*Should No Deal win a referendum against Remain, it will have to be implemented. We cannot argue that it is vague, we cannot argue that people may have voted for something else and we cannot argue that there is any doubt. Any other attempts to engineer No Deal need to be fought with everything.
Snowflake liked this
By Silkyman
Membership Days Posts
#583962
So Corbyn isn’t in any way interested in a Govt of National Unity. He wants to be rubber stamped as the next PM because somewhere loads of Tory MPs are going to suddenly back him.

Corbyn is an opportunistic, power grabbing chancer who can fuck off.
Abernathy, lord_kobel, oboogie and 2 others liked this
 
By Abernathy
Membership Days Membership Days Posts
#583963
A lot of The Cult in particular are confusing Corbyn's role as Leader of the Opposition with the posited role of temporary or caretaker Prime Minister.

Imagine for a minute if Jeremy Corbyn were successfully to table a motion of no confidence in Johnson's government. We know what would happen, because we're talking about it now - Johnson would have 14 days in which to win a second vote of confidence, and if he could not, and if nobody else, including Jeremy Corbyn, could command the confidence of the house to form a new government, a general election would follow.

In those circumstances, then, there would be a general election - because Corbyn would not be able to command the numbers to form a new government under the terms of the FTPA. We know this - so why should it be in any way surprising that Corbyn could not command a majority as head of a caretaker government?

What a caretaker government and PM seeks to do is entirely different from the official opposition taking over as the government when the official government falls in a VONC. It isn't seeking to govern long-term. It's trying to bring together a short-term alliance of cross-party MPs to avert a disastrous outcome for the country - in this case no-deal Brexit. It postpones the general election until that immediate danger has been averted (which of course it also would not be under Corbyn's proposal, since he only wants the new referendum after a general election). As such there is no need at all for the caretaker PM to be the leader of the opposition - in fact, there is a real need for the caretaker PM NOT to be the LOTO.

This seems to be what many of The Cult are failing to understand, or are wilfully pretending not to understand.

And of course, try explaining this to them. They don't want to know.
I actually think Corbyn is being venal and self-centred in pitching this the way that he has. It's pretty disgusting.
lord_kobel, Malcolm Armsteen, oboogie and 2 others liked this
 
By Snowflake
#583997
Dan wrote:
Fri Aug 16, 2019 2:57 pm

Johnson, not being a true Brexiteer, can extradite himself from this by, legitimately, stating that he tried everything to push Brexit through but was overruled and stopped against his will from implementing the result.
I think this is pretty much spot on, Johnson probably realised right from the start he is up an inlet sans means of propulsion, and this is the only way he can emerge with any semblance of credibility still intact.
  • 1
  • 809
  • 810
  • 811
  • 812
  • 813
  • 822

Flint again. https://twitter.com/CarolineFlintMP/[…]

Sounds like a longshot, sadly. Might not be a bad […]

Labour, Generally.

Doesn't bother me at all either. Nor, I suspect, w[…]

Daily Star front pages

They paint a picture of any life in showbiz being […]