[Malcolm Armsteen]

I see that Michael Crick has Tweeted that Owen Smith will announce his candidature in a few days - as widely expected.

[youngian]

New ICM poll doesn't bode well for Corbyn's LAB
CON 38% +1
LAB 30%=
UKIP: 15%=
LD: 8%=
GRN: 4%=

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[Arrowhead]

I see that Michael Crick has Tweeted that Owen Smith will announce his candidature in a few days - as widely expected.

Sorry, I'm confused............I though the whole point of Angela Eagle running was to be that of a solitary "unity" candidate versus Corbyn? Are we to assume that Corbyn won't automatically be on the ballot after all?

[Malcolm Armsteen]

I don't think we know.

The NEC will have to make a decision, based on their legal advice, which seems to be that he would have to be nominated by 51 MPs. Unite the Union has different legal advice, they say. And then the NEC might decide that whatever the advice he should be on the ballot anyway. Any or all of which makes the whole process open to legal challenge, which David Allen Green believes would find against Corbyn. Possibly.

In fact the whole thing is incredibly badly conceived and the rules are horribly ambiguous. Thanks, Ed.

[Winegums]

If he's not on the ballot it'll be seen as a miscarriage of justice, a blatant coup and insult to the membership.

I'm sure some forum posters will be delighted.

[youngian]

Among others

If he's not on the ballot it'll be seen as a miscarriage of justice, a blatant coup and insult to the membership.

"A travesty of a mockery of a sham of a mockery of a travesty of two mockeries of a sham."

[Picklechu2]

Typical Blairite, pro war MSM, sheeple polling etc... Ad fucking infin.

[Winegums]

The question isn't "is he doing well/badly?" but "who do you want to lead the party?"

[Malcolm Armsteen]

See other table in Jezza thread.

[Malcolm Armsteen]

[Picklechu2]

Given McClusky's support for Corbyn, he must be DESELECTED as Unite leader statim. Thats how it works, right?

[Abernathy]

That rather depends on what the NEC decides tomorrow in relation to the correct interpretation of the party rules. Specifically, whether an incumbent leader is required to obtain the same PLP nominations threshold as other candidate(s).

The rules are appallingly vaguely expressed and arguably are open to either interpretation - namely that a) Corbyn requires PLP nominations to stand, same as any other candidate, or b) that he has special privileges as incumbent leader that mean he can stand without having to bother with PLP nominations.

Clearly, Corbyn and his camp prefer the second interpretation, because with four out of every five Labour MPs having declared him unfit to lead, he is likely to be unable to obtain the nominations from the PLP that he needs to be able to stand - there will be no sympathy nominations this time around. Predictably, the Corbyn fan club have been busy trying to paint the first interpretation as undemocratically keeping their man off the ballot paper, blocking him from standing, and so on. In fact there would be nothing undemocratic about it at all - Corbyn would still have the chance to put himself forward for re-election as leader on precisely the same basis as any other putative candidate. That he is highly unlikely to be able to get past the first stage of being validly endorsed by the required number of PLP members is either a good thing or a bad thing, depending on your point of view.

The upshot is that the decision being made by the NEC tomorrow is in effect highly political. Whichever way the decision goes, there may well be legal injunctions that will hold up the whole process, and ultimately an actual, for real split in the party.

The bottom line is that it is all something of a shambolic mess. Littlejohn would say that you couldn't make it up, but we bloody well have done. It is all thoroughly dispiriting.

[Winegums]

It's hard to defend another election with Corbyn not on the ballot. Even if you say it's by the rules, the sequence of events as they've played out will make it seem like a scam. It'll frustrate and disenfranchise members, discourage the voting public and give the Tories a free ball ("why should you lead the country when you couldn't even win leadership of your party fair and square?").

Angela Eagle got asked about this by Andrew Neil a few days ago. She sort of just floundered and failed to answer the question, which is a great sign of things to come.

[lord_kobel]

It's hard to defend another election with Corbyn not on the ballot.

No it isn't. It's following the rules he himself used in 1988.

[Malcolm Armsteen]

Oh do give over, Gummy.

With those approval figures?

As someone else said, if you want Corbyn as leader put down your mouse and get out on the streets, do the work. Persuade people rather than just post drivel.