- Thu Apr 12, 2018 4:28 pm
Any new party is fucked until we get shot of FPTP, which neither Labour nor the Tories will ever do.
The best shot of it happening is a coalition where electoral reform is part of the coalition deal and not something that is put to the public where the Tories and Labour will both stand for the status quo. And that's not likely to happen anyway.
Otherwise, what will happen is that even if a new party do well enough to get a few MPs, they'll be the junior partner in a coalition at best and get screwed over as the Lib Dems were - the Tories took seats off of them because their more right-wing supporters were disappointed they weren't Tory enough, and Labour took seats off of them because their more left-wing supporters were disappointed they went in with the Tories at all/didn't stop them from being the Tories. And the reality is they more or less held the worst of the Tories in check and prevented an undiluted Tory minority rule, a 2nd general election when the Tories always have more funding so could have done better, or an earlier incarnation of fun with the DUP, as we're saddled with now.
In summary: good luck to them. They'll need it.