- Sat Jun 08, 2019 12:58 pm
After Peterborough's By Election
I've held back for a few days while collating the available information.
Party loyalists and invested Brexit or remain campaigners have been predictable in their spinning.
Yesterday afternoon Prof. John Curtice was on a panel show, injecting a puff of realism to the rest of the panel.
The main points:
* Voters predictably snapped back toward government and opposition parties in a FPTP by-election.
* There was almost no movement between brexit and remain blocs between Euro and By elections.
For the numbers to balance it was necessary to count Labour votes as part of the remain bloc.
* Labour was extremely successful at recapturing votes fomr the remain bloc (Green and LibDem), while
tories were less successful in recapturing Brexit voters.
* Brexit didn't seem to eat into the labour votes, just the tories.
I've drawn 2 conclusions form this.
The Labour win has stuck a spoke in the wheel of Nigel's unicycle.
A Brexit win at this point could be exploited as the rise of an unstoppable movement.
Brexit losing (narrowly) from a favourable start point halts that momentum.
I chuckle at the thought of red-top leader writers being summoned from their beds to re-write their By Election headlines and leaders.
Brexit is now brawling with the Tories for Westminster votes.
I can't imagine those same Red-tops tolerating an existential threat to the Tory Party.
They may continue promoting Nigel's project, but they'll know his party now threatens Tory votes in the marginals, and isn't the anti-Labour ticket that they hoped for.
The educated differ from the uneducated as much as the living from the dead. Aristotle