MisterMuncher wrote: ↑
Wed Feb 12, 2020 12:04 pm
A re-run would be FF/FG's nightmare.
Kreuzberger wrote: ↑
Tue Feb 11, 2020 9:35 pm
The toxicity barrier of Sinn Féin seems to have been breached in the results from last week's elections, but yet they are set to struggle to pull a coalition together. The Republic could be headed for another election.
Question: is this now Sanitised Sinn Féin or Sinn Féin/IRA? Has the last week's electoral success created a kind of social endorsement which would see a whole lot more voters piling in? What would that mean if the election needs to re-run?
From where I am sitting, Sanitised SF has the upper hand and that social social endorsement from this week's voters could open the flood gates if there is to be a fresh ballot. That is another question.
Another is that whether a rampant SF could issue the call with the E.U.'s backing (as a precondition for trade talk with London) for a Border poll, and walk it.
The Shinners know exactly where they could have carried another seat or two, they'll put on votes from people who will find them acceptable now, and they'll have momentum behind them.
I wouldn't be so sure. Sinn Fein might do ever better if there was another election called to be held within the next few months, but it's also quite possible that they could fall flat. In most cases where their surplus transferred elsewhere due to not having a running mate, they mostly went to other candidates standing on left-of-centre platforms - an effective rerun could increase SF seats but in that scenario they'd be more likely to win seats from the Greens, Solidarity/PBP, Social Democrats etc. rather than Fianna Fail or Fine Gael and thus not taking the Dail on a further leftward shift.
The Shinners are usually good at playing the "long game" so I'd say that this sudden responsibility thrust upon them has taken them by surprise (the small-ish number of candidates fielded being the most obvious sign). The thing is, do they have the depth in the party to put up further competent candidates for another potential election later in the year? Also, while Fine Gael will probably be happy enough to drop back into opposition for a few years, Fianna Fail will have been burnt by the result last weekend - they've never been subject to such an opposition outflanking them outside of Fine Gael. But one thing FF are is a bunch of cute hoor bastards for whom power is their bloodlust, and will swing whatever way the wind is blowing to make sure they do their best to get it - not too unlike the Conservatives in Britain, I guess, except that FF really is a largely "big tent" party that has something of a left-of-centre wing. The main thing holding them back is, essentially, memories of 2008.
Also I spotted something else a couple of days ago regarding exit polling regarding wherever those whom voted for relevant parties preferred either tax cuts for economic stimulus or tax increases to better fund public services, and a surprising result showed Sinn Fein and Fine Gael voters to be remarkably similar in their preferences (if I can find the graphic, I'll get it up here) - maybe that shows a possibility that SF enjoyed a surge in support largely as a protest vote instead of the electorate taking a stronger left-wing turn economically? As they say over here, Sinn Fein in Leinster House are, wherever they like it or not, now playing "Senior Hurling" and can't deliberately be "Hurlers on the ditch" any more, essentially as they've been given a mandate by the electorate to sort some things out. If they refuse to do that, bar a stitch up between FF & FG somewhere which looks unlikely, the electorate would probably punish them.