Political talk from outside of the UK
:sunglasses: 20 % :thumbsup: 40 % :grinning: 20 % :cry: 20 %
By spoonman
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youngian wrote:How this RTE court reporter kept a straight professional face I don't know. I do now its apparently it's a sketch show. But I bought it though. Very funny
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I don't blame you for buying it - I could well believe a real RTÉ report describing the scenario & language involved. :lol: Mild swearing in small amounts is fine on most TV and radio output there.
By spoonman
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Well on Friday coming it's the Irish Republic's general elections. And at the moment no one seems to have any clue as to what would be eventual outcome of the new government except that it is highly unlikely to remain the current Fine Gael/Labour coalition.

Fine Gael will likely see a drop in their vote share from 2011, but should still be comfortably the largest party in the Daíl.

The second largest party will be a fight between Fianna Fail & Sinn Fein. FF have had somewhat of a rehabilitation as all the old wood associated with the 00's Celtic Tiger era has been swept out bar their current leader Michael Martin but there's still a lot of distrust on them. Sinn Fein appear to be on course for their best result ever in the Daíl mainly as an anti-austerity protest party.

The junior coalition partner Labour are going to suffer, though likely not as dramatically as the Lib Dems did in Britain last year in terms of seat shrinkage. In 2011 they secure 19.4% of first preference votes, current opinion polling has them at just 7-8%.

The Greens got burned in 2011 as coalition partners with Fianna Fail in government prior to that election and were wiped out. They might have enough this time to take back one or two seats.

Two minor parties formed out of splits from the FG/Lab coalition are contesting - Renua is basically an Irish version of the Tories with less jingoism and xenophobia, while the Social Democrats advocate moulding the Irish Republic's economy into one like the Nordic model. Will probably get two or three seats each, but no real breakthrough.

There's also a left-wing coalition called Anti-Austerity Alliance/People Before Profit (AAA-PBP) which has seen its share in opinion polls grow slightly in the last few months, but I'd doubt it'll translate into more seats.

The big spanner in the works is the potential amount of independents elected which could be even higher than that elected in 2011.

At the moment, if the opinion polling proves accurate then the only semi-stable coalition I can see working is a FG (senior) and FF (junior) one which would probably suit both parties just fine if that were the case. The only other possible alternative is FF & Sinn Fein which might need another minor party to give confidence & supply, but I'd have doubts the FF grassroots would entertain a coalition with the Shinners even if it meant Michael Martin became Taoiseach. Fine Gael almost certainly won't deal with SF. If none of that happens, then there might be another election called later this year.
By new puritan
Membership Days Posts
A hung Dail seems to be inevitable then.

http://www.independent.ie/irish-news/el ... 77557.html" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Other polls have pointed to a near-wipeout for Irish Labour though. I presume the 'Independents Alliance' here is the same thing as 'Independents 4 Change' which was formed out of the United Left Alliance. And I have to say that forming a new social democratic party to run in an election for the first time in 2016 seems almost as pointless as forming a new Home Rule party.
By spoonman
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If reflected in reality then it looks like the big winners will be Fianna Fáil whom have managed to make a political recovery quicker than many would have expected five years ago.

Enda Kenny could be in bother with the result, a 10% fall from 2011. Even if Fine Gael remain in government, he might be ousted as Taoiseach.

Although Sinn Fein will gain seats from 2011, it'll likely they be disappointed with their performance considering they were pretty much neck & neck with Fianna Fáil in opinion polling in the last few weeks. Also SF not being a transfer friendly party could hurt them getting the final constituency seats.

Joan Burton, head of the Labour party and present Tánaiste (deputy PM) is at serious risk of losing her seat. Might have to depend to Fine Gael transfers to see her though.

Also talk going around that the Greens might re-enter the Dáil with four seats, better than predicted.

Counting starts later this morning, but by this time tomorrow I don't think we'll be any the wiser as to whom the next government will be compromised of.
By new puritan
Membership Days Posts
Shocked and stunned that Cameron's endorsement of Fine Gael has failed to carry them to victory.

http://www.independent.ie/irish-news/po ... 95301.html" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Looks like the Anti-Austerity Alliance will end up with something like 5 TDs, which seems to be pretty good going.
By spoonman
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new puritan wrote:Shocked and stunned that Cameron's endorsement of Fine Gael has failed to carry them to victory.

http://www.independent.ie/irish-news/po ... 95301.html" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Looks like the Anti-Austerity Alliance will end up with something like 5 TDs, which seems to be pretty good going.
TBH I don't think Cameron's words of support from a 10 Downing Street meeting would have had any affect on the potential outcome. Had he actually flew into Dublin to meet Enda Kenny explicitly to back him it might be another matter.
By spoonman
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State of play with 150 seats out of 158 declared...

Fine Gael: 49 seats (76 in 2011/66 outgoing)
Fianna Faíl: 43 (20/21)
Sinn Fein: 22 (14/14)
Labour: 6 (37/33)
AAA-PBP: 5 (4/4)
Independent Alliance: 4 (na/5)
Social Democrats: 3 (na/3)
Independents 4 Change: 3 (na/4)
Greens: 2 (0/0)
Renua: 0 (na/3)
Independents: 13 (14/10)

With 80 seats required to form a majority government, the only one that looks anywhere near practical is FG/FF - the question is wherever these two parties will get over their Civil War rifts to form a grand coalition of the centre/centre right up against what would be an opposition mostly to its left? If not, then with Fine Gael not having near enough seats to try and secure confidence & supply with several smaller parties it's almost certain there will be another election before the end of the year. Maybe even the summer.
By Zuriblue
Membership Days Posts
Frank Kelly may have died but Father Jack lives on

http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-northern-ireland-35688401" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

By spoonman
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The newly elected Daíl met today, with a new Taoiseach unlikely to be elected.

In the meantime you can witness the two Healy-Rae brothers who topped the poll in Kerry make their grand entrance


Just to be clear, these two men combined took over 38% of the first preference vote in the Kerry constituency. :shock: :shock: :shock:
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