I just don't get why the MeckPom result should be seen as such a disaster for the Merkel and the CDU. Yes, that is where Merkel grew up but that is of little or no relevance.
The state is a backwater. There are few geographic parallels to be draw with the UK because of geography but the best I can offer is that it is like west Wales rising up to slap their most famous daughter despite the fact that they have few refugees but possibly sense a degree of alienation or marginalisation, and despite the fact that they have been huge net beneficiaries of reunification. They don't like wogs much, either.
The one worry is that the perennial squabblers of the AfD could possibly edge their way in to the Bundestag. However, I cannot see either two main parties (joined by Die Linke in the East) ever legitimising this rabble as coalition partners.
A CDU/CSU, FDP, AfD coalition in 2017 might just be statistically doable but I can't see it. A CDU/CSU, SDP government is currently more than likely but the senior partner (Merkel) will need to shore up her support against the braun tendencies.