Political talk from outside of the UK
:sunglasses: 32.9 % ❤ 2.7 % :thumbsup: 24 % 😯 9.6 % :grinning: 19.2 % 🙏 1.4 % 😟 6.2 % :cry: 3.4 % :shit: 0.7 %
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By Malcolm Armsteen
Membership Days Membership Days Posts
#626796
Boiler wrote:
Wed Oct 14, 2020 9:20 am
May thought she was going to wipe out Labour on the strength of polls.

That went well.
Then led the most insipid, divisive and disorganised campaign.

Which explains the difference?
oboogie liked this
 
By youngian
Membership Days Posts
#626800
Boiler wrote:
Wed Oct 14, 2020 8:08 am
I'll believe it when I see it. Polls are worthless: the only thing that counts is the ballot box.
Polls were correct within a +/- 3 percent margin of error in 2016. Why are they worthless now? No one claims polls putting Biden ahead at this point of the campaign is a prophecy of victory. But the trajectory is the opposite for Trump this time around. Lots of factors in play that can win Trump the electoral college vote but they’re looking weaker. I leaned towards Trump winning only a few months ago. Looks less likely every week.
oboogie liked this
 
By Bones McCoy
Membership Days Membership Days Posts
#626803
The US constitution has suffered a hammering during the last 4 years, and some of it has been shown highly questionable.
For example - the president's power to issue pardons like confetti.

Let's recognise one positive.
Many countries that go down the "Let's elect this political outsider - his ideas appear popular" route never get another opportunity to vote.
 
By crabcakes_windermere
Membership Days Membership Days Posts
#626804
Boiler wrote:
Wed Oct 14, 2020 8:08 am
I'll believe it when I see it. Polls are worthless: the only thing that counts is the ballot box.
Polls like this are definitely worth it. At a certain point there’s a risk of complacency. But *past* a certain point your opponent’s supporters decide not to bother as it’s a done deal and they know it’s lost, but your supporters still come out because if there’s a landslide on the cards, everyone wants in on it.

Biden is heading towards that territory, the senate looks almost certain to flip, and in doing so even if they pack the Supreme Court, a President with the house and the senate can fix that.

This is the republicans reaping what they’ve sown. Live by the Trump, die by the Trump.
Arrowhead, oboogie liked this
 
By davidjay
Membership Days Membership Days Posts
#626807
crabcakes_windermere wrote:
Wed Oct 14, 2020 10:11 am
Boiler wrote:
Wed Oct 14, 2020 8:08 am
I'll believe it when I see it. Polls are worthless: the only thing that counts is the ballot box.
Polls like this are definitely worth it. At a certain point there’s a risk of complacency. But *past* a certain point your opponent’s supporters decide not to bother as it’s a done deal and they know it’s lost, but your supporters still come out because if there’s a landslide on the cards, everyone wants in on it.

Biden is heading towards that territory, the senate looks almost certain to flip, and in doing so even if they pack the Supreme Court, a President with the house and the senate can fix that.

This is the republicans reaping what they’ve sown. Live by the Trump, die by the Trump.
There's a good point there - everybody loves a winner. A lot of Trump's support is made up of the sort of people trotting out the macho posturing that winning is the only thing that matters, and if they sense the game is up they'll be rooting for Joe. See the Sun 1997-2005 for further evidence.
oboogie liked this
 
By Andy McDandy
Membership Days Membership Days Posts
#626812
An American friend has pointed out throughout the last 4 years that their constitution is a remarkably resilient thing. While it makes it quite easy for a populist demagogue to get into power, it also makes it rather easy for them to be ousted. And as the various defeats Trump has suffered over the years suggest, getting to the Oval Office is no guarantee that you'll get anything done.

That said, the one thing he has enabled over his tenure is the mob. I remember when right wing militias were a few crazies on mountain tops, not parading in the streets.
 
By Bones McCoy
Membership Days Membership Days Posts
#626813
Andy McDandy wrote:
Wed Oct 14, 2020 11:51 am
An American friend has pointed out throughout the last 4 years that their constitution is a remarkably resilient thing. While it makes it quite easy for a populist demagogue to get into power, it also makes it rather easy for them to be ousted. And as the various defeats Trump has suffered over the years suggest, getting to the Oval Office is no guarantee that you'll get anything done.

That said, the one thing he has enabled over his tenure is the mob. I remember when right wing militias were a few crazies on mountain tops, not parading in the streets.
I'm very worried how the militia story ends.
Allowing firearm ownership is one thing.
Having private armies invading town centres and making shows of force is quite another.

If it does kick off, the Cops may need every one of their armoured trucks and grenade launchers.

I return to the failed state theme.
What other sort of nation has groups of politicized gunmen on the streets at election time?
oboogie, Oblomov liked this
 
By crabcakes_windermere
Membership Days Membership Days Posts
#626824
This is another defeat Trump may have brought onto his supporters. After a solid, indisputable Biden win Trump will be desperate - he will have 2 months before his immunity from prosecution is up. If he can’t even make the pretence of a case for electoral fraud, he has one thing left - an attempted coup. But the military, the feds, the CIA etc will all follow Biden, so he’ll have to rely on his militias. They’re just a bunch of indiscriminate racist thugs, so as soon as they commit an atrocity like gunning down a group of peaceful moms counterprotesting, it gives the incoming President and Senate the impetus to finally pass new gun control laws.

By being so openly awful, Trump has put *everything* in play.
oboogie liked this
 
By Catkins
Membership Days Membership Days Posts
#626837
Did anyone notice Trump retweeting an accusation that Obama had Bin Laden's body double killed, (Sunni Osama is apparently alive and chilling with the Shias in Iran) and Biden had the Navy seal witnesses to this murdered?

For anyone else this would be news. For Trump, it was Tuesday morning.
Timbo liked this
 
By Tubby Isaacs
Membership Days Membership Days Posts
#626854
Wow, who could have seen this coming?



Might not be the genius move it's made out to be though. Austerity isn't popular, and the Republicans are defending seats in Wisconsin, Iowa, Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Florida. I know the wrecking crew thing worked for them under Obama, but there's something different about Biden...
 
By The Weeping Angel
Membership Days Posts
#626884
Tubby Isaacs wrote:
Wed Oct 14, 2020 7:33 pm
Wow, who could have seen this coming?



Might not be the genius move it's made out to be though. Austerity isn't popular, and the Republicans are defending seats in Wisconsin, Iowa, Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Florida. I know the wrecking crew thing worked for them under Obama, but there's something different about Biden...
Don't worry people on twitter will still blame Nancy Pelosi and the establishment Democrats.

 
By crabcakes_windermere
Membership Days Membership Days Posts
#626899
Tubby Isaacs wrote:
Wed Oct 14, 2020 7:33 pm
Wow, who could have seen this coming?



Might not be the genius move it's made out to be though. Austerity isn't popular, and the Republicans are defending seats in Wisconsin, Iowa, Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Florida. I know the wrecking crew thing worked for them under Obama, but there's something different about Biden...
Also relies on them retaining the senate, which is looking increasingly unlikely.
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