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By spoonman
Membership Days Posts
#589950
MisterMuncher wrote:
Thu Nov 07, 2019 1:48 pm
youngian wrote:
Thu Nov 07, 2019 11:14 am
MisterMuncher wrote:
Wed Nov 06, 2019 9:51 pm
As a trend it would kind of make sense. The seat went from mad old Bob McCartney, to Sylvia as UUP, to Sylvia as independent. Alliance is probably the next softening. Lord knows there's fuck all in the way of a nationalist vote to push Alliance on at all.

North Down isn't particularly DUP heartlands. For all that they polled very well in 2017, it's pretty anomalous. The hardline position is well on the slide there. Much too affluent and educated to get gulled with talk of flegs and fires.

What are SF giving up in their strongholds in order to slash Johnson's numbers in parliament? Standing down for liberal unionists and SDLP in seats they can't win may be unprecedented but its hardly a heavy hearted sacrifice.
Optics.

This is England's Difficulty. They're finding Ireland's Opportunity. They're giving up nothing, really, and gaining the ability to show that they can help fuck things up, which plays rather well. Winding up the DUP and finally, finally giving the SDLP a bit of fire in the belly are very pleasing side effects.

Long game, the DUP lose face and support. They lose seats in the eventual restart of Stormont. The petition of concern dies with that.

I resist the urge to say SF have played well. They've been handed this on a plate. There's no wrong move to make. Even in a worst case, they'll diminish the DUP and boost more moderate unionism, and from there they can start legislating what their base want, be that the old base attached to republicanism, or the new base attracted to the social liberalism.
BIB is very important to comprehend. Sinn Fein (largely) have very little concern in the general domestic day to day politics in Britain. What they're concerned about is their own aims, if this lines up with the thinking of some parties and politicians in Britain then so be it, but political commentators that are on odd occasions holding out some hope that one day Sinn Fein MPs will take their seats in the HoC may as well whistle in the wind. It is extremely unlikely to ever happen and would take extraordinary circumstances even more than what there 8s right now for them to seriously think about it, they are there to do their own thing, not be obedient pawns in larger British political games. They are in general opposed to Brexit, but will fight it on their terms and interests. Modern history has helped to show that compared to Loyalists, Irish Republicans (or at least those with at worst a "loose" connection with Sinn Fein) are better at playing the long game and MM has picked up an interesting point concerning the SDLP - there has never been any love lost between the two and for the past two decades Sinn Fein has been largely about being the most dominant nationalist or republican party in NI, but the amount they've been able to siphon off the SDLP's support base has plateaued. They can now see an opportunity for the SDLP and Alliance to gain electoral strength without much harm to them, but a lot more harm to the UUP & DUP. It won't be without at least some consequences - there's a very good chance they will lose the Foyle seat to the SDLP on 12/12, but Sinn Fein are not really sending out their most capable to fight Westminster seats, with the odd exception. They prefer to keep them in Ireland, North or South.
youngian, The Red Arrow liked this
 
By Boiler
Posts
#590044
Kreuzberger wrote:
Fri Nov 08, 2019 5:52 pm
Andy McDandy wrote:
Fri Nov 08, 2019 4:57 pm
I do worry that if he loses, he'll run amok in a shopping mall and try to shag a vending machine.
He'd shag someone else's vending machine, such is the mark of the man.
There are recorded cases of men errr.... pleasuring themselves in the exhaust pipes of cars :shock:
 
By spoonman
Membership Days Posts
#590067
Re: That clip of Johnson rambling - I never knew it was possible to get "tired and emotional" now at Tayto Castle (!), or did they add a pub some time after I once visited there on a day trip from school?

That glass of water's fooling no one.
 
By Boiler
Posts
#590076
Also, buried way below the Labour-bashing:

Nigel Farage faces mounting pressure to stand down as his backers warn that the Brexit Party's surging support could cost vital Tory seats at the election


https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/articl ... -down.html

Needless to say, the commentariat are having none of it.
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