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Keep close to EU or face long-term decline, OECD warns UK
Britain must secure "the closest possible economic relationship" with the European Union after Brexit to prevent the economy suffering a long-term decline, the Organisation for Economic Cooperation & Development (OECD) has said.

The thinktank to the world's richest nations, which has predicted the UK's growth rate will fall to just 1% next year, said a "disorderly" exit from the EU single market and customs union in 2019 "would hurt trading relationships and reduce long-term growth".

But the report said that the reversal of the Brexit decision by a change of government or a second referendum would have a "significant" positive impact on the UK's growth.

Entering the debate over Brexit at a crucial stage in negotiations, the OECD added that steep falls in the UK's productivity performance relative to other major economies allied with the failure of its export industries to grab a slice of expanding world trade have left it in a weak position to operate outside the EU.
Julia Harley-Brewer @Julia HB1

The OECD can stay the hell out of our business.
mr angry manchester wrote:Isn't Julia Hartley-Brewer the fruit loop who wanted Hammond arrested for treason?
Yup. Big Phil, right up there with Burgess, Philby and Maclean. Don't get me wrong, he's a Tory, I'd hang him for that. But treason? ffs!
The Brexiters know it will, which is why they're falling over themselves to try and rubbish it now.
Possibly. I doubt the news is going to get a lot better without a significant amount of movement in talks, which will only follow a significant climbdown by the UK.
I foresee several possible scenarios playing out, all of which eventually lead to a General Election.

Scenario #1
Theresa May continues playing hard-ball on Brexit and makes No Deal look more and more likely. Spooked, there is a major upheaval as businesses flea to the EU and the economy tanks. The Tories become massively unpopular for breaking the economy and a vote of no confidence is passed with pro-EU Tories bringing down the Government on basis of (1) not in my bloody name and (2) sudden pang of country over party and giving May and the Brexiters a poke in the eye. The DUP, resistant to a hard Irish border, bring down the Tories.

Scenario #2
Theresa May softens her stance. This is seized on by the swivel-eyed masses on the backbenches and a leadership election is called. She does a Thatcher and tries to stand again but fails. A more rabid Brexiter is installed who "seeks their own mandate for no deal" and calls an election.

Scenario #3
As Scenario 2. The new PM does not call an election but withdraws from talks fully to wait out time. Then, as option 1, capital flight and vote of no confidence.

The scenarios kicking off can be a number of different ways. Boris being sacked would cause an instant response. Hammond being sacked would spook the money markets. But I believe the outcome is the same, between now and 29th March 2019 there will be another General Election.
I am inclining towards 3 being the most likely. I cant see May lasting that much longer whatever happens. Also, yes, definitely another election within the next 18 months.

Predictions for the hypothetical 2018 or 19 GE anyone?

I am going for no overall control with Labour as the largest party, coalition with LDs/SNP to keep the Tories out
Messianic Trees wrote:
Julia Harley-Brewer @Julia HB1

The OECD can stay the hell out of our business.
That follow up to the initial tweet from Norman Smith reads like a parody of itself with a whole chorus of extremists either abusing the OECD (it's a bunch of letters so it must be an EU-funded plot) or traducing the BBC for reporting the story in the first place.

That, in or itself, is nothing new. They don't like experts and they don't like forecasts which challenge their belief system. But, the mood seems to be hardening with the more ideologically-driven ones morphing in to a Wahhabi-style cult: death to unbelievers, death to apostates.

I don't think that we have much to fear from JH-B, Dan and Nige donning the fatigues and leading a bunch of Great Yarmouth's pensioners to the city gates, but their rhetoric is increasingly dangerous. If this doesn't go to (their) plan, Jo Cox won't be the last.
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