- Fri Jan 01, 2021 9:44 am
Today I present the Government, Tony Blair and the SAGE members who lent their credibility to this madness.
The madness being delivery of Covid vaccine in single doses.
Let's take this in stages.
The first Vaccine (Pfizer) is part way through administration, with only first doses delivered to date.
Its handling requirements mean that GPs have their bookings packed with second appointments.
GPs now believe they must cancel those thousands of appointments and replace them with new "one shot" patients.
The claim that the first shot affords 70% effect bears no relation to testing.
Pfizer's vacine was tested on the assumption of two shots with a 3 - 4 week gap.
This provided a 90% figure - that is all the data we have.
I suspect 70% was arrived at using a swiss-cheese statistical method. (More on this later)
A method utterly unsuited to use for 2 doses of the same medicine.
Without going all Thalidomide on you, I'd note the effects of other medicines taken in partial doses against manufacturer's recommendations.
The most familiar one being development of "super" bugs that bypass the medicine's effects - when a full dose would have wiped them out.
Others include reduced effect (assumed in this case), or reduced duration of protection.
The Govt need to clear this up fast.
Any policy other than continuing the Pfizer batch according to manufacturer's instructions represents the worst form of magical thinking.
It's effect is to use that cohort of the eldest and most vulnerable, and use them as guinea pigs for an untried therapy.
I've no doubt this plays fantastically well with the government's eugenicist outriders.
The rest of us have a right to be very angry.
Personal interest: Both my parents received dose 1 of Pfizer, and are due for dose 2 on Jan 7th.
Swiss cheese statistics - a very quick run through...
Swiss cheese got a mention a few weeks back in the context of taking multiple precautions; masks, and distancing, and hand washing.
For sake of a simple example, if each one provided 50% protection, then using two would provide 75% (Half of the half gets through) and using all three provides 87.5% (Half of half of half).
Actual figures are quite different, I kept it simple for this example.
You can also calculate backwards, but the swiss cheese model only applies if the different methods are independent.
What I suspect some spreadsheet jockey has done is this.
2 doses = 90% effect - what's the effect of 1 dose.
Simples: If 1 dose is 70% effective, only 30% gets through, so 30% of 30% gets through with 2 doses - 90% effect (With a bit of Excel rounding applied).
Simples, but bollocks; because we're looking at two of the same things, where the numbers don't work like that.
Hanging a serial killer twice, for example.
Angry, I'm totally livid (apols. Gerald the Gorilla. Not the Nine O'Clock news).
The educated differ from the uneducated as much as the living from the dead. Aristotle