Area for all other political discussion
:sunglasses: 43.3 % ❤ 10 % :thumbsup: 16.7 % :grinning: 26.7 % 🧥 3.3 %
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By Big Arnold
Membership Days Posts
#576124
Didn't Farage say that the Euro elections would be the equivalent of a second referendum? The 33.3% share he got doesn't suggest that Leave would win again.
It was a protest vote with no implications for the next GE.
 
By oboogie
Membership Days Posts
#576134
Big Arnold wrote:
Mon May 27, 2019 11:01 am
I think the UK had to wait until the rest of the EU polls closed. No idea why NI didn't start last night.
Religion apparently - "thou shalt not count votes on the Sabbeth Day".
 
By spoonman
Membership Days Posts
#576137
Big Arnold wrote:
Mon May 27, 2019 9:58 am
Didn't Farage say that the Euro elections would be the equivalent of a second referendum? The 33.3% share he got doesn't suggest that Leave would win again.
It was a protest vote with no implications for the next GE.
Yeah but he'll deny that he either really said it, claim it's taken out of context, or if you bring it up in front 9f a TV camera he'll accuse you of being biased against Brexit and that you are trying to smear him and the party and you should talk about how Brexit will happen if we only believe in it enough.

Re: Vote counting in NI. IIRC it's only the Westminster elections here that start their counting ASAP after the polls close and work overnight if necessary and even that was only introduced in the 00's. The local council elections earlier this month again didn't begin counting until the following morning. Might be down to STV counting being more enduring in calculating seats given the rounds of counting required at each stage to transfer votes from surpluses & eliminated candidates. So unlike FPTP and the closed party lists which only require one round of counting (bar any recount requests) you rarely get to declare it all over by say 2am. Therefore there's little harm waiting until around 9am to open the boxes knowing it is unlikely be before lunchtime before even the first seats are declared.
 
By spoonman
Membership Days Posts
#576143
First count finished for the NI region.

Quota is 143,112

Sinn Fein 126,951
DUP 124,991
Alliance 105,928
SDLP 78,589
TUV 62,121
UUP 53,052
NI Greens 12,471
UKIP 5,115
Morrice (Ind) 1719
McCann (Ind) 948
Conservatives 662


No one elected on the first count - the five candidates with the fewest votes (Conservatives, two independents, UKIP & NI Greens) are eliminated and their votes will be transferred to the next eligible preference.

Some observations...

* A little surprising that neither Sinn Fein or the DUP are even close to the quota on the first count, in the past they've either been shoe-ins or been very close to it that it was a formality.

* Alliance will be absolutely fucking delighted in getting over 100,000 first preferences. Naomi Long will be odds on now to win a seat.

* Colum Eastwood of the SDLP has done reasonably well, but Naomi Long has a big enough gap ahead of him and it's difficult to see where Eastwood could get transfers from to bridge the gap other than Sinn Fein surpluses which won't be enough.

* Jim Allistar (TUV)? Uuurrgh! Being a reactionary bigoted bollocks still plays well to around 11-12% of voters who gave him their first preference. Won't cross the finishing line thankfully.

* The UUP have effectively lost their EU seat after holding it since the 80's. Will likely be next to be eliminated and it will be interesting to see where the transfers go.

* NI Greens, while enjoying some success in the local elections a few weeks ago, still have plenty of work to do with only a very modest increase in their vote share compared to 2014. The EU wide Green surge hasn't really happened here.

* Back in 2014 UKIP took over 24,000 first preference votes. This time it's barely over a fifth of that. Good, now fuck off.
Arrowhead liked this
By Dan
Membership Days Membership Days
#576145
It appears Farage has already had a tantrum when it was pointed out to him that if this is indeed a proxy referendum, the Remain vote defeated the Leave vote. When you don't let him dictate the terms of the debate, he really cannot handle it.

I don't think the elections were a proxy referendum, incidentally. The only way to legitimately find out what the people think is to call another vote on it. Leavers were arguing this though and are now getting incredibly defensive when these pesky facts are pointed out. To them, Brexit Party won, that's it, the country wants out on No Deal.
spoonman liked this
 
By spoonman
Membership Days Posts
#576147
Count two in NI after transfers from eliminated candidates...

Quota: 143,112

Sinn Fein 128,117 (+1,166)
DUP 127,291 (+2,300)
Alliance 115,327 (+9,399)
SDLP 80,949 (+2,360)
TUV 63,872 (+1,851)
UUP 54,736 (+1,684)

Still no candidate has reached the quota, so Danny Kennedy of the UUP is now eliminated with his transfers going to the remaining candidates for count 3. This will likely take Diane Dodds of the DUP over the line though how many will transfer to TUV & Alliance?
Arrowhead liked this
 
By Bones McCoy
Membership Days Posts
#576150
Tubby Isaacs wrote:
Mon May 27, 2019 1:41 pm
The Tories romp to 7th place in Neath Port Talbot.
Well done that man.

Shades of "Glenn McGrath is dismissed, just 98 runs short of his century".
 
By Bones McCoy
Membership Days Posts
#576151
I recall conducting STV counts during my university days.
Tedious in the extreme with all the fractional transfers, and having to explains the system time after time to the many different candidates.

The D'Hondt system is remarkably elegant by comparison - though it makes no attempt to be truly proportional.
I could see it getting used to allocate points for stuff like Scrabble tournaments.
 
By spoonman
Membership Days Posts
#576152
Count three and we have our first one over the quota line after the UUP votes were redistributed...

Quota: 143,112

Sinn Fein 128,190 (+73)
DUP 155,422 (+28,131)
Alliance 122,263 (+6,936)
SDLP 82,101 (+1,152)
TUV 79,540 (+15,668)

So now what happens is the the DUP surplus of 12,310 is transferred to the other candidates, and this time it is a fractional transfer rather than a whole transfer from eliminated candidates. It'll pretty much decide who gets eliminated next, TUV's Allistar or SDLP's Eastwood.
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