[AOB]

Brexit: Bill designed to stop no-deal 'will clear Lords'


The bill will clear the Lords on Friday meaning Boris can call another GE vote. This new thread is jumping the gun a tad but I think it's a given there will be one now.

So will Johnson be the shortest serving PM for nigh on two centuries? Or will there be a no deal Brexit if he gets in with a majority? Tuesday's purge means there are no naysayers in his own party to stop winning a vote against repealing this no deal law, should he win a majority. Or fuck forbid, the Brexit Party get enough seats to form a coalition with him. I've a horrible feeling the latter will happen, throwing in the DUP. Labour won't get a majority. The only glimmer I can see that means no Tories anywhere near Downing Street is a Lab/Lib/other Remain/No "no deal" parties coalition. If that happens they better get 3 more MPs than needed, because Hoey and Mann are effectively Brexit Party.

To sum my prediction up, the Tories might but probably won't get a majority, Labour won't get a majority. Brexit Party won't do as well as in the May Euros but may get enough seats to make a difference. Lib Dems will do well, how well may be critical to Brexit. I how they do will be key, with my prediction of neither Con/Lab gaining a majority.

[Snowflake]

The Brexit party for me will still be lucky to gain any seats at all. Kevin Maguire on the Sky news press review commented that in areas where they poll well they tend to hurt the Tories, and I think the key for them is a pre-election pact rather than any post election alliance.

Little doubt that Farage is gagging for one.

[youngian]

The Tories are the main challengers in Labour Leave marginals and where UKIP scored second place in these constituencies in 2017 they were a long way behind the winner. If Johnson is forced into a November election having had his October Brexit deadline moved forward then BXP may well gain votes from the Tories.

[AOB]

The Tories are the main challengers in Labour Leave marginals and where UKIP scored second place in these constituencies in 2017 they were a long way behind the winner. If Johnson is forced into a November election having had his October Brexit deadline moved forward then BXP may well gain votes from the Tories.

A friend of mine thinks that Farage will target Labour Leave areas. From what you say though, the BXP would do well to avoid those areas, if their aim was simply Brexit No Deal, and not necessarily to gain seats in the Commons.

[youngian]

Labour
Mary Creagh 22,987 49.7 +9.4
Conservative
Antony Calvert 20,811 45.0 +10.8

Johnson’s BlueKIP 2 strategy was launched in front of fainting coppers in Wakefield yesterday. Creagh’s anti-Brexit line made no difference to the national trend in 2017 so why do the Tories think they can take it now? Apparently unlike snotty May, Johnson connects with working class voters in Yorkshire with his jolly japes. We’ll see.

[lord_kobel]

Apparently unlike snotty May, Johnson connects with working class voters in Yorkshire with his jolly japes. We’ll see.

See my post in the Johnson thread...

[Arrowhead]

Johnson’s BlueKIP 2 strategy was launched in front of fainting coppers in Wakefield yesterday. Creagh’s anti-Brexit line made no difference to the national trend in 2017 so why do the Tories think they can take it now? Apparently unlike snotty May, Johnson connects with working class voters in Yorkshire with his jolly japes. We’ll see.

I was always under the impression that it was the other way round i.e. Johnson is seen as a prattish Old Etonian bungler whereas May, with her particular brand of authoritarian, blue rinse social conservatism tended to find a sympathetic audience among a significant number of working class voters.

I can imagine the Tories snatching another handful of Northern seats from Labour, but it not being enough to offset their losses elsewhere e.g. in Scotland to the SNP and to the LD’s in the South West. If they have another good campaign, Labour may even grab a few Tory seats in places trending their way such as East Worthing, the Milton Keynes seats and Chingford.

[youngian]

Labour may even grab a few Tory seats in places trending their way such as East Worthing, the Milton Keynes seats and Chingford.

Uxbridge? Having a PM for an MP should see Johnson’s return but he has an uphill struggle. The Labour candidate pointed out that Uxbridge is now 30 percent BME and no Tory has won a seat with that demographic (possibly not entirely true but near to it).

[The Rationalist]

Johnson’s BlueKIP 2 strategy was launched in front of fainting coppers in Wakefield yesterday. Creagh’s anti-Brexit line made no difference to the national trend in 2017 so why do the Tories think they can take it now? Apparently unlike snotty May, Johnson connects with working class voters in Yorkshire with his jolly japes. We’ll see.

I was always under the impression that it was the other way round i.e. Johnson is seen as a prattish Old Etonian bungler whereas May, with her particular brand of authoritarian, blue rinse social conservatism tended to find a sympathetic audience among a significant number of working class voters.

I can imagine the Tories snatching another handful of Northern seats from Labour, but it not being enough to offset their losses elsewhere e.g. in Scotland to the SNP and to the LD’s in the South West. If they have another good campaign, Labour may even grab a few Tory seats in places trending their way such as East Worthing, the Milton Keynes seats and Chingford.

The demise of IDS would be particularly delicious moment!

[Arrowhead]

Uxbridge? Having a PM for an MP should see Johnson’s return but he has an uphill struggle. The Labour candidate pointed out that Uxbridge is now 30 percent BME and no Tory has won a seat with that demographic (possibly not entirely true but near to it).

It's possible, although a 2019 GE might come five years too soon for the recent demographic shifts in the area to tip the seat into the Labour column. Nonetheless, I'm pretty sure Uxbridge is already listed as one of the most rapidly-changing seats in the country - probably not what Boris had in mind when he plumped for the seat a few short years ago.

I guess, when it comes to a figure as marmite as Boris Johnson, literally anything can happen. I suspect a lot of the saner Tory voters in the constituency are pretty cheesed off at have such an enormous prat representing the area in parliament.

[Daley Mayle]

The other element is whether the Tory 21 will put themselves up as Independent Conservatives. Some are retiring but there are some big names among this cohort.

Grieves said he would, Ken Clarke is prevaricating, never say never he said.

[Tubby Isaacs]

I think he'll win. Labour have a 24 year old candidate with previous for anti-Semitism (albeit as a very young man, and for which he has apologized properly), and no work more heavyweight than the NUS. He seems a nice chap and has an untypical politician's background, but it seems like the wrong choice to me. See what the Democrats did in 2018- they went looking for soldiers to run in marginals. Isn't there a hospital doctor who could have run?

[Samanfur]

The other element is whether the Tory 21 will put themselves up as Independent Conservatives. Some are retiring but there are some big names among this cohort.

Grieves said he would, Ken Clarke is prevaricating, never say never he said.

Hammond seems to be not going down without a fight, as well. His constituency had only reselected him 48 hours before Johnson withdrew the whip.

[Arrowhead]

I think he'll win. Labour have a 24 year old candidate with previous for anti-Semitism (albeit as a very young man, and for which he has apologized properly), and no work more heavyweight than the NUS. He seems a nice chap and has an untypical politician's background, but it seems like the wrong choice to me. See what the Democrats did in 2018- they went looking for soldiers to run in marginals. Isn't there a hospital doctor who could have run?

I suspect you're probably right, although Labour certainly have a better than an outside chance this time.

I think I'd probably die laughing if they managed to somehow pull it off, though. If nothing else, it'd be the ultimate Portillo Moment.

On the subject of Portillo, a question: I was only partially engaged in politics back in 1997 when he lost his Enfield Southgate seat, and so the magnitude of his defeat was slightly lost on me at the time. Was Portillo really such a reprehensible character back then? Who would be his equivalent in the modern-day Tory party?

[Abernathy]

The younger Portillo would have been a sort of Dominic Raab de ses jours, I dare say.