Tubby Isaacs wrote: ↑
Tue Oct 22, 2019 8:55 pm
I'm not expecting a repeat of May's campaign, but Johnson having to run on shaving 6.7% off long term won't be the best pitch.
Jez could get a fair bit of his 2017 Coalition back with his second Referendum promise. I don't really like a lot of the other stuff, but other Remain voters do. It won't be a bad offer. The problem is Corbyn turns out the Tory base by himself. Johnson might actually stick some more cuddly stuff in to woo swing voters.
Corbyn may well win back at least some of his 2017 coalition, but I suspect it will be a far more muted swing than what we witnessed back then. The Lib Dems are certainly going to be way higher than 7.8% next time, whatever happens. Persistently alienating millions of their own voters up until finally
committing to a People's Vote this autumn was bound to catch up with Labour eventually. A lot of those voters tried their luck with assorted other parties earlier this year, and haven't really shown much sign of coming back.
I suppose there is always the chance that Brexit will finally start to collapse under the weight of its own bullshit over the course of a full GE campaign. If Corbyn can keep warning against a "Trump-style" Brexit, and remind voters Johnson is the guy who lied to the Queen and pushed the DUP under the bus, Labour could maybe still get to within 5% of the Tories and thereby (probably) deprive them of a majority.