Area for all other political discussion
:sunglasses: 40.5 % ❤ 5 % :thumbsup: 17.4 % 😯 5 % :grinning: 18.2 % 🙏 3.3 % 😟 3.3 % :cry: 5.8 % :shit: 1.7 %
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By Arrowhead
Membership Days Membership Days Posts
#592110
Is anybody else currently experiencing that old, familiar sinking feeling right now? The outlook seems blisteringly grim. At the same stage of the 2017 campaign we at least had a handful of indications that something was afoot, whereas right now the polls merely seem to be suggesting variations of an impending Tory majority.

I suppose tactical voting and youth turnout could still be a thing, but I'm not holding my breath. The Remain vote still looks fragmented to hell, with one half still decrying Corbyn as a No Deal Brexiteer and the other half dismissing the Lib Dems as an adjunct of the Conservative Party, with the Greens stuck unhappily in the middle. The sight of, say, IDS losing his seat won't mean much on the night if the Tories still end up toasting victory at the end of it.

Apologies for the downbeat post, but everything looks ever so slightly fucked right now.
 
By Arrowhead
Membership Days Membership Days Posts
#592116
The Red Arrow wrote:
Wed Dec 04, 2019 12:58 pm
Maybe things aren't as bad with tactical voting as you think. I read somewhere yesterday that we used to think a week was a long time in politics - now it's three hours
Yeah, I guess tactical voting could still prove be the big unknown in this particular election. There are a helluva lot of seriously brassed-off Remain voters out there right now, more so than in 2017 too. Certainly, some of the constituency-specific polls have thrown out some interesting numbers recently.
 
By Andy McDandy
Membership Days Membership Days Posts
#592127
The problem I have with this "decapitation strategy" of targeting for the most part comfortable Tories in the home counties and London is that while it will make for great 3AM viewing (if it works), it won't necessarily change much.

If Johnson or Raab lose their seats, they'll be parachuted into safe seats in the fastest by-elections you'll have ever seen. Or kicked up to the Lords. The incoming Tories will still all be headbangers, a sea of Grant Shapps clones. With a dearth of political talent, it'll be Bufton Tuftons and shiny suited Apprentice candidates as far as the eye can see, and Priti Patel as most senior adult in the room.
 
By bluebellnutter
Membership Days Membership Days Posts
#592129
It's a tactic which only really works for a minor party (with tacit support from the bigger opposition parties). To see Labour (and to a slightly lesser extent the Lib Dems) doing it is just mad.

I will make an exception for IDS as Chingford is a seat Labour could legitimately win in it's own right.
 
By Tubby Isaacs
Membership Days Membership Days Posts
#592131
The Tories got the strategy right. Which leader gets the base out and Brexit Party voters back? The rest basically follows.

Labour's task was harder, but if you ignore lots of your own voters telling you to change the leader, you can't expect to win. All that's on now is tactical voting on a heroic scale. Even if that happens, any post election deal will look like a stitch up. It can't work unless Labour get much closer to the Tory vote share.
 
By Boiler
Posts
#592132
Elsewhere a Tory supporter opined that with a sizeable majority, the influence of the ERG would be diminished.

I am astonished that no-one has challenged him with "and what makes you think the ERG position isn't the one the next administration would adopt?"
 
By Arrowhead
Membership Days Membership Days Posts
#592138
Boiler wrote:
Wed Dec 04, 2019 1:51 pm
Elsewhere a Tory supporter opined that with a sizeable majority, the influence of the ERG would be diminished.

I am astonished that no-one has challenged him with "and what makes you think the ERG position isn't the one the next administration would adopt?"
I’ve seen those reports as well, i.e. about Johnson being desperate to make any potential majority “ERG proof”. Presumably, the ERG have been identified as the next group due to be ungraciously shafted by the PM, around this time next year ironically.
 
By youngian
Membership Days Posts
#592151
The Red Arrow wrote:
Wed Dec 04, 2019 12:58 pm
Maybe things aren't as bad with tactical voting as you think. I read somewhere yesterday that we used to think a week was a long time in politics - now it's three hours.

A large proportion of Lab and LD voters are going to vote for the sitting MP of their own party. I have no idea what that figure is but the tactical voting figure sounds very high.
 
By Tubby Isaacs
Membership Days Membership Days Posts
#592164
It does sound high. Lots of people either have their own preference in first place or second place in their constituency. Plus there are loads of others in safe Tory seats, where no amount of tactical voting will shift anything, and you might as well for who you want. If those tactical votes are where they're needed, things could be interesting.
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