Tubby Isaacs wrote: ↑
Wed Dec 04, 2019 6:57 pm
It does sound high. Lots of people either have their own preference in first place or second place in their constituency. Plus there are loads of others in safe Tory seats, where no amount of tactical voting will shift anything, and you might as well for who you want. If those tactical votes are where they're needed, things could be interesting.
Applying those 55%/48% numbers to the 2017 GE results would, by my reckoning, have tipped 15 CON seats to LAB and 5 CON seats to the LDs in England alone. Tactical voting becomes much more difficult to work out in Wales and Scotland due, of course, to the presence of PC and the SNP.
However, a further 16 English CON seats would see their majority cut to three figures, including both pairs of Milton Keynes and Northamtpton seats plus 4 of the seats LAB lost to the Tories in 2017.
To be honest, it's an exercise in comparing apples & pears because there are clearly now some areas (such as Esher & Walton) where the Lib Dems have managed to establish themselves as the clear alternative despite finishing a distant third last time.