Area for all other political discussion
❤ 50 % :thumbsup: 50 %
  •  
  •  
  •  
  •  
  •  
  •  
  •  
#592447
Right, leaving the discussion of the campaign and eventual result in that thread, this is a thread purely for the posting of predictions of what happens on Thursday. A lot still up in the air so as follows (entries close at 21.59 on 12/12);

Post-election PM
Party which gains most seats (compared to previous result, not who wins most)
A constituency which will definitely change hands (to or from anyone)
Biggest name to lose their seat
Surprise seat flip of the night
Damp squib of the night
First party leader to resign post-election
Wildcard prediction (can be anything)
Arrowhead liked this
#592457
Ha, I was just about to start a similar thread! 8)

I'm going for a Tory majority of 70-80. Put simply, 90% of Tory voters like their leader (the other 10% despise him and will in all likelihood sit this one out) whereas a very large proportion of traditional Labour voters openly dislike theirs. Are they really going to come out in droves, on a cold, wet Thursday evening in winter, to vote for him? Sadly, I don't think they will. Like 2015, turnout is going to be a huge issue for Labour.

Post-election PM: Boris Johnson
Party which gains most seats: The Tories
A constituency which will definitely change hands: Lots to choose from, but Richmond Park should be an easy pickup for the Lib Dems given their performance in local elections there
Biggest name to lose their seat: IDS, fingers crossed
Surprise seat flip of the night: East Dunbartonshire, perhaps? Failing that, maybe Steve Baker misses out in Wycombe
Damp squib of the night: Hope I'm wrong because of what it will mean elsewhere, but the Lib Dems barely making it to 20 MP's
First party leader to resign post-election: Corbyn, but only next spring or summer so the new leader can be unveiled at the next party conference
Wildcard prediction (can be anything) : I'll have to give this one some thought & come back to it
#592459
Post-election PM; Johnson, naturally. I reckon about a sixty seat majority.
Party which gains most seats (compared to previous result, not who wins most); Conservatives
A constituency which will definitely change hands (to or from anyone); Peterborough.
Biggest name to lose their seat; IBS (I hope). Raab (next best hope).
...
...
First party leader to resign post-election; None of them. Post-election resignation is a relatively modern trend IMO and both Swinson and Corbyn are too arrogant.
Wildcard prediction (can be anything); Brexit Party gets a seat.
#592461
Post-election PM: Johnson
Party which gains most seats (compared to previous result, not who wins most): Conservatives (I expect them to get a majority of 20-30 seats)
A constituency which will definitely change hands (to or from anyone): South Belfast - DUP to SDLP
Biggest name to lose their seat: Nigel Dodds (DUP Westminster leader) is a little vulnerable, over in Britain please let some outgoing Tory minister cunt be shown the door
Surprise seat flip of the night: Again, more local here, Fermanagh & South Tyrone. A quite socially conservative constituency, I think Sinn Fein are underestimating a possible backlash concerning the recent amendment on laws concerning abortion in Northern Ireland
Damp squib of the night: Just the utter deflation of Johnson securing a parliamentary majority
First party leader to resign post-election: Anna Soubry
Wildcard prediction (can be anything): Johnson holds on to the Uxbridge & S. Ruislip seat but with a reduced majority of less than 1000
#592462
Post-election PM: Johnson
Party which gains most seats (compared to previous result, not who wins most): Tories
A constituency which will definitely change hands (to or from anyone): Melanie Onn backed Johnson's deal and will still get turfed out of Great Grimsby despite this
Biggest name to lose their seat: IDS (fingers crossed)
Surprise seat flip of the night: Can't think of any
Damp squib of the night: Raab not losing
First party leader to resign post-election: Swinson
Wildcard prediction (can be anything): Laura Kuenssberg visibly wettting her knickers as the Tories gains come rolling in

I had high hopes that it would be a hung parliament but Johnson is teflon and Corbyn too disliked (unfairly imo) so I think I'll have a bottle of scotch on Thurdsay night and drink myself into a stupor.

Maybe when I wake up I'll find that the whole 3½ years have been a dream.
#592540
Rather than go into individual predictions, althought I do think de Piffle will somehow win; my longer term view is that whilst the likes of Cummings think they are very clever following the Brannon playbook and getting a useful dummy into the No1 job, in order to push their right-wing socio-economic policies in the back ground.......the thing that's keeping me going is that it's not working out so well with the Orange Shit Gibbon
#592570
I expect a Tory landslide.

A simple Tory majority would be the 'best' outcome, although this is not my preference.

Brexit by Christmas then another battle with the EU over the future relationship, leading to a possible no deal scenario again next year.
#592574
Thursday, 8 June 2017. We were in Rakovnik, about an hour west of Praque in rural Bohemia. The landlord of the local bar, Peppa, had recently dropped down dead having barely made 50, and there was a memorial session for those who had known him but hadn't been able to get there beforehand.

Fuck it, I thought. Elections come and go, friendships are eternal and I wasn't going to sit glued to my phone. Others at the party were wracked with grief which they would take to their own graves. Mine was merely for the country of my children and which could probably heal within a decade or three. Perspectives, if you will.

It is fair to say that we were in a reasonably advanced state of refreshment by the time we got back to my mate's cottage. Sat in the garden and having started on one of the final bottles of cocoa schnapps that Peppa had cooked up, I looked at the BBC at around midnight. About an hour after the polls had closed. "Elation" probably covers it.

We finished the bottle, knowing that a bullet had been dodged, at least for now.

So, my prediction for this GE is that I will be watching The Rangers against Young Boys with some Berner mates. I have stripped my schedule until 14:00 on Friday and we have some god-awful hooch that comes from the Berner-Oberland. It's probably distilled from buttercups under the Jungfrau, (just to add an inappropriate air of innocence), but it's hard to say.

My daughter has her orders. This is her first GE and she is my proxy. It is also my last, owing to the 15-year rule. She has argued an SNP position with a passion and eloquence which I am happy to amplify in Glasgow South by precisely 100%. Apart from a few unread musings on Twitter, I have done all I can.

Well, comrades. It is time to Take Back Control. Vote clever. Vote tactically. And get these bastard tories with their hideous Brexit to fuck.
Abernathy, Arrowhead, Boiler and 2 others liked this
#592579
Watchman wrote: .......the thing that's keeping me going is that it's not working out so well with the Orange Shit Gibbon
Unfortunately it seems the impeachment is not working out that well. It appears to be helping Trump's chances in 2020.

No way will the Senate find him guilty.
#592585
I'll base my predictions on results being a few points higher for Labour and LDs than the polls predicted

Post-election PM: A Tory who isn't Johnson

Party which gains most seats: The Tories

A constituency which will definitely change hands: Hastings which will be a rare Labour gain.

Biggest name to lose their seat: Boris Johnson. He was bundled into a fridge this morning by his minders to avoid a GMB reporter. I'm guessing every time he's opened his mouth Tories have fallen in the polls.

Damp squib of the night: Tories fall short of a majority due to poorer than expected showing in Labour Leave seats.

Surprise seat flip of the night: Labour and/or LDs take a traditionally Tory seat in the North London suburbs or A1/M11 corridor.

First party leader to resign post-election: Boris Johnson. If he doesn't lose his seat his head is still the price for LD discussions.

Wildcard prediction (can be anything) : LDs reach 20 seats.
Arrowhead liked this
#592588
Party which gains most seats (compared to previous result, not who wins most) - Tories
A constituency which will definitely change hands (to or from anyone) - Kensington
Biggest name to lose their seat - Raab
Surprise seat flip of the night - Bristol NW
Damp squib of the night - The ineffectuality of tactical voting
First party leader to resign post-election - JC. But it won't be immediate. Weeks if not months.
Wildcard prediction (can be anything) Labour MPs to launch immediate challenge. We know they want it, so why would they wait?
#592589
Post-election PM: Johnson

Party which gains most seats: The Tories

A constituency which will definitely change hands: Richmond Park

Biggest name to lose their seat: Dennis Skinner (not just Brexit, but read that lots of Tory-friendly houses have been built in the constituency)

Damp squib of the night: The Remain Alliance falling short in the South East- the leads are just too big, Nicely set up for next time though, if it's any comfort.

Surprise seat flip of the night: Swindon South- car industry problems have an effect. Labour candidate ex-soldier (female), which counteracts fears of Jez.

First party leader to resign post-election: Swinson (reckon she survives, but makes a virtue of "owning up" to her failings in order to rehabilitate herself as a "national treasure")

Wildcard prediction (can be anything) : DUP losing chunks of middle class Unionists
#592591
I was going say Swindon South.... I even had a dream that changed to Labour...

Post-election PM: Boris (But I reckon we are heading to a Hung Parliament, I've said it since day one and I'm sticking with it)
Party which gains most seats (compared to previous result, not who wins most) Lib Dems, I think gains will be set off by losses hence.
A constituency which will definitely change hands (to or from anyone) St Ives
Biggest name to lose their seat - Jo Swinson
Surprise seat flip of the night: West Brom East
First party leader to resign post-election - Jo Swinson
Wildcard prediction (can be anything) - The Exit poll is again dismissed because it shows a hung parliament.
#592594
Post-election PM: Boris regrettably and by an infuriatingly small margin to at least limp on for a little while longer. Things may unravel next year as we get into the next wave of negotiations but in the meantime some mean-spirited geriatrica in the North Midlands and Yorkshire will get him over the line

Party which gains most seats (compared to previous result, not who wins most) Conservatives just!
A constituency which will definitely change hands (to or from anyone) Have a hopeful feeling about Hastings in terms of bucking the national trend. If the voters there elect the current Conservative candidate (the very embodiment of bitter and twisted with a smiley surface), the we are surely doomed as a tolerant nation

Biggest name to lose their seat – IDS would do very nicely but any Conservative MP who has been outspoken in their view of Brexit!

Surprise seat flip of the night: St Albans

First party leader to resign post-election – would like it to be Swinson and Chuka Umunna to take over and begin the process of building a new Centrist party with clear separation from the poisonous legacy of the coalition. More likely to be the slow death of Corbyn.

Wildcard prediction (can be anything) – some heroic failures and close run things for some of the Independents. I would be happy of either Gaulke or Grieve got elected!
Tubby Isaacs liked this

No Deal is exactly what they want. It keeps th[…]

Priti Patel

Nothing to edit out of this article from Ian Dunt […]

Labour, Generally.

The Tories didn't even need to bother with attacki[…]

Because "This big monolithic thing that you[…]