[The Red Arrow]

Sinful, I know, but some interesting punts beyond the two favourites.

Odds on next Labour leader

[Tubby Isaacs]

Those are like the odds in an old Grand National, like they're expecting a major pile up that takes out most of the field.

Emily Thornberry at the Foinavon price of 100-1. Put a monkey on her.

[Samanfur]

Clive Lewis interests me. He seems a lot more switched on and progressive than the former military folk we normally see rise to the top in modern politics.

He was on Politics Live yesterday, with perennial PMQs backbench mouthpiece Dehenna Davison, and Kevin Maguire of The Mirror, who's from a neighbouring constituency to Davison's (and therefore could counter if she tried to generalise about the area).

The subject was the war on woke, the National Trust and whether Churchill was simply above criticism because of WWII.

Davison was squirming quite badly, being at least self-aware enough to be unable to accuse a proud veteran of simply not being patriotic enough, or tell a black man what he should be offended by.

I'd be curious to see how he'd be seen on the front bench.

[Andy McDandy]

I initially thought of Dehenna Davison as another interchangeable Emma from Tory central casting, but her background is a bit more "street", although it boils down to blaming the system for perceived failures, and taking up the apprentice alumnus position of "bootstraps, quit whining, etc". Basically Jayda Fransen with a degree.

[Samanfur]

Look up how her father died, which she credits as being why she wanted to get into politics.

It's an admirable aim, but she seems to have some massive blind spots if she thinks that joining the Tories and espousing the views she has now are how you do it.

[mattomac]

I’m sorry but he hasn’t even had an election yet, he could announce his entire platform in 2021 like Miliband did in 2012 but by the time it gets to 2025 like in 2015 it’s all old hat.

Problem for Starmer is the Corbyn lot, it may require over time Rayner taking the reigns or someone similar but to me he hasn’t seen much of a drop off from the support he worked up in the last year.

Will also make a point not one of those Liverpool candidates had anything to say on EHRC recommendations.

As for Clive Lewis give me a fucking break.

I would say Johnson has made a rod for his own back with these dates, if he fails to deliver on any of them his vaccine success boost will disappear very quickly. It’s why I think that 21st of June date was foolish, he lost the way these dates have been reported very quickly.

[Tubby Isaacs]

Lewis has a back story and can speak well and be very sharp. Too soon for leadership (as it may have been for Starmer, really, we'll see).

The dates seems reasonably cautious- though maybe that's just the impression I'm getting from seeing IDS and co moaning. I wouldn't go full on attacking them. But I would stress that the government need to change course if it's going as it should. That/s the big mistake the government made in November and December, and Starmer was right there.

They won't be normal local elections, whatever the result. Much better circumstances for the government than normal.

[Tubby Isaacs]

https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/202 ... our-budget

During prime minister’s questions on Wednesday, Starmer said: “Now is not the time for tax rises on families and businesses.”

Fair enough really. You want investment and spending now from business and people.

Richard Burgon, the former shadow justice secretary who is secretary of the Socialist Campaign Group of MPs, said: “The question facing all politicians now is: who is going to pay for this crisis? And if we don’t have an answer for that, then we are in a position where Labour doesn’t have an answer to one of the biggest questions facing us. The prime minister rejected my call for a windfall tax. But Labour has to make clear that the super-rich corporations who have increased profits pay their fair share to bringing the end to this crisis.”

The cost of the pandemic can be borrowed now incredibly cheaply. Where tax rises should come in is afterwards when we think about what sort of state we want to tax and spend for.

Sunak might raise the headline rate a bit, I suppose. That might be politically awkward, but Labour can match and excede that later when they economy's picked up.

[mattomac]

Thing is if these dates shift it’s going become politically awkward, he has let the media report it as it is, once the schools open he can’t close them again.

I think Starmer’s approach is right and he did hammer him today at PMQs, everything is a bit short term and all we’ve seen leak so far from the Tories on the economy is tax rises on the hardest hit and cuts across the country.

Austerity is back, it did it ever go away?

[The Red Arrow]

The way things are looking, Starmer is going to be complicit in people looking for means other than the ballot box to elicit change.

[Tubby Isaacs]

He's not though. He's attacking them from the Keynsian "don't reduce demand in a slump" side.

[youngian]

He's not though. He's attacking them from the Keynsian "don't reduce demand in a slump" side.

It is; no cuts, no tax rises but pay later as no way is now the time. The Tories could attack Starmer for wanting to spend, spend, spend without paying for it. But they’re the last people to level with voters on the need for higher taxation to maintain spending. And this would be the worst time for the Tories to start. Labour accusing Sunak of hiking taxes to ‘pay for Tory failure’ isn’t rhetorical this time.

[youngian]

Blair joins Ed M and Gordon Brown batting for the team instead of pursuing the vanity of their past. But there’s no pleasing some

[oboogie]

At a time when many, many businesses are going under due to the double whammy of Covid and Brexit, now is the last time to be hitting them again with increased Corporation Tax.
Monbiot should stick to the environmental stuff, he understands that and is good at it.

[Tubby Isaacs]

It would help if some politicians actually knew that you have to look beyond the headline rate of corporation tax. There are all manner of deductions in different jurisdictions that bring the effective rate in most cases down. Funny that businesses spend so much on accounting if they could work out their tax bills themselves with a bit of long division, isn't it?

Actual tax experts work this out. The UK might market itself as low corporate tax, but it's basically in the middle.