Boiler wrote: ↑Fri May 07, 2021 11:26 am
Respectfully Crabs, all apart from (6) is science, not luck - and importantly, has sod-all to do with Johnson.
Correctly hypothesising how a new vaccine technology would work when using a dosing regime based on a different product - luck (informed luck, I'll grant you - but luck nonetheless that results didn't differ)
Second guessing that supply lines for a new in-demand product would hold up - luck. If the Indian variant had come in sooner, or another variant hit europe, vaccine production could have been hit or diverted and our supply considerably more limited.
The weather being unusually cold even for Spring in the UK to keep people from gathering in large numbers in beaches and parks - OBVIOUSLY luck.
How rapid mutation variants behave in response to a treatment designed for a different variant - luck (this is why flu jabs are annual, not one and done for life)
A treatment being more effective in doing something that's a by-product of what its primary purpose is - luck (you could predict it would be effective in suppression, but not *more* effective than expected)
Which way the UK tabloids would go and how the public would take it about a classic fearmonger story - luck (ever hear of Andrew Wakefield?)
A reckless, corrupt Tory PM and useless Health Secretary *not* taking an opportunity to make more £££ from an already bung-strewn pandemic response? We all got lucky here that they didn't decide to make vaccine rollout and delivery a centrally government controlled thing.
We have had things happen at just the right time, things happen that have been unexpectedly better than thought, and things that we have been at the right stage to be able to ride out. The experiences of other countries shows just how badly wrong things can go. If the Kent variant had been the even more transmissable Indian variant. If Johnson had been persuaded to open up again sooner. If one of the vaccine manufacturers had had a plant issue earlier, or quality control problem. If The Sun had decided to run with "KILLER JABS" as a headline.
I really cannot stress enough how we have been incredibly lucky to be where we are now, all the moreso because of the overall incompetence and indifference of those in charge. Following science and sensible policies in an island nation gets you New Zealand. Our being in a better position now - but with tens of thousands dead - is down to some coins coming up heads rather than tails and a far-too late willingness to take this seriously.